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11 août 2014 1 11 /08 /août /2014 11:35
Five Scenarios for the South China Sea

11 Aug. 2014 Pacific Sentinel

A Vietnamese-American space scientist has published an article entitled Five Scenarios for East Sea on Hanoi-based online newspaper VietNamNet Bridge on August 1, analyzing the historical background of the Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands disputes, and arguing that Vietnam has never given up sovereignty over the former, as well as predicting five possible scenarios for the South China Sea–known as the East Sea in Vietnam–that may occur within the next ten years.


In the article Thai Van Cau said that in the first scenario, China will utilize military force to invade part of or the whole of the Spratly Islands in an attempt to "resolve disputes and establish sovereignty over the islands and its territorial waters by 2020," as Chinese scholars have suggested.


The precedent for this is China's use of military force against Vietnam in marine disputes during the 1970s and 1980s, he said.


China's military ventures in the Spratly Islands are motivated by its ambition to control all of the islands. This move is likely to destabilize the South China Sea region and affect marine traffic for countries such as the US, Japan, and India.


China has been monitoring the response of the US and the EU to the Ukraine crisis, to try and get an idea of the backlash that will be unleashed against it should the nation make any dramatic moves in the South China Sea, the report stated. The annexation of Crimea by Russia may not be the best guide for China to go by, however, due to geopolitical and economic differences, Thai said. 


Read the full story at Want China Times

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