Overblog Suivre ce blog
Editer l'article Administration Créer mon blog
17 mars 2014 1 17 /03 /mars /2014 13:50
Russia, the Ukraine crisis and the future of European security

 

12th March 2014  – by Stephen Blank - europeangeostrategy.org



A week into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the time has come to consider some of its core lessons for the future of the transatlantic relationship and European security.

First and most importantly, the Ukraine crisis has buried the post-Cold War assumption that war in Europe is inconceivable. Accordingly, the (Western) belief that the world has left Realpolitik has proven both fallacious and dangerous. In fact, the West’s passivity and utter incomprehension of Putin and Russia reveals a discomforting fact: Europeans and Americans are cognitively unprepared to effectively defend the post-Cold War settlement.

The second lesson revealed by the Ukraine crisis is that European security may well be divisible and that Western Europeans and Americans – as has too often been the case – may not be ready to fight for their Eastern European allies. As long as these conditions are operative, Russia will continue to expand its self-proclaimed sphere of influence.

Thirdly, the previous generation’s belief that Russia could be integrated into Europe has imploded. Russia wants a free hand, empire, and great power status. It equates liberal democracy and integration within the West with subordination and thus resists them. Russian power cannot be integrated into a European normative and political order. Instead, Moscow sees the corruption, subversion, and undermining of that order as a key condition for its own survival. This insight leads to the next lesson.

Fourth, Russia’s imperial land and power grabs in Georgia and now in Ukraine; its efforts to undermine security in Moldova and the Caucasus; and its permanent sabre rattling in the Baltics show not only that Russia remains unreconciled to the 1991 loss of empire but something much deeper: Putin and his ‘boyars’ firmly believe that Russia cannot be governed except as an Empire. For the Kremlin, Empire represents the necessary condition of survival against the threat of Westernisation.

Fifth, and critically, Russia considers that the use of force is the only viable way to advance its Empire. As the crises in Ukraine and Georgia show, Russia cannot accept the genuine sovereignty or territorial integrity of any of its neighbours, including Eastern Europe. Thus all of its agreements with them are ultimately merely ‘scraps of paper’. The Kremlin believes it must subvert, corrupt, undermine, or even try to conquer their territories to preserve this ruling elite in power and consolidate domestic support around Great Russian state nationalism. Moreover, the fact that the countries and peoples that stand on Russia’s path are likely to show resistance and that the Russian state cannot cope economically with the burdens of empire reinforces the point that Russia’s imperial drive is interwoven with war.

Only if the transatlantic alliance understands and assimilates these lessons can it successfully roll back the current challenge to European security and restore the basis for a genuinely free and unified Europe. This means the military revitalisation of NATO and its full willingness to uphold its agreements to support Ukraine’s security and integrity, as stated in the 1997 NATO-Ukraine treaty. This does not mean war but a combination of resolute military support for Ukraine, tough economic sanctions against Russia’s government, banking system, and ruble, and the decisive reorganisation of European energy policy. It also means exposing Russia’s undeclared ‘asymmetric’ war on Europe and efforts to corrupt its political figures and institutions. For the EU it means not only devising a package to restore Ukraine to economic health but also practical assistance and a genuine promise of membership on condition that Kyiv carry out the arduous but necessary long-term reforms.

The present crisis has exposed Western reluctance to act on Ukraine’s behalf.  This appeasement is wholly misplaced and dangerous. Crimea is only the beginning. Unless the West works vigorously to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity it will face ever-mounting challenges – and not just from Russia. A choice for passivity and appeasement may well relive Churchill’s post-Munich admonition: ‘England had a choice between dishonour and war. She chose dishonour. She will have war’.


 

Dr. Stephen Blank is a Senior Fellow for Russia at the American Foreign Policy Council. Prior to this he was a Professor at the United States Army War College. He writes here in a personal capacity only.

Partager cet article

Repost 0

commentaires

Présentation

  • : RP Defense
  • RP Defense
  • : Web review defence industry - Revue du web industrie de défense - company information - news in France, Europe and elsewhere ...
  • Contact

Recherche

Articles Récents

  • Chronique culturelle 9 Janvier
    Hussards du régiment de Bercheny en 1776 09.01.2017 source JFP 9 janvier 1778 : mort du créateur des régiments de Hussards (Luzancy – près de Meaux). Emigré hongrois et excellent capitaine au service de la France, Ladislas Ignace de Bercheny , obtient...
  • Chronique culturelle 04 Jan.
    Insigne général des Troupes de Forteresse de la Ligne Maginot 04.01.2016 source JFP 4 janvier 1894 : signature de l’alliance franco-russe. Préparée par de nombreuses activités bilatérales dans les années précédentes, une convention militaire secrète est...
  • Chronique culturelle 03 Jan.
    Napoléon en Egypte par Jean-Léon Gérome 03.01.2017 source JFP 3 janvier : Sainte Geneviève, patronne de la gendarmerie. Issue de la noblesse gallo-romaine du IVe siècle, elle convainc les habitants de Lutèce de ne pas livrer leur ville à Attila, roi des...
  • Au Levant, contre Daech avec les Forces Spéciales
    photo Thomas Goisque www.thomasgoisque-photo.com Depuis plus de deux ans, les hommes du C.O.S (Commandement des Opérations Spéciales) sont déployés au Levant et mènent, en toute discrétion, des opérations contre l’Etat islamisque.Au nord de l’Irak, ils...
  • Les blessés en Opérations extérieures ne prennent pas de vacances !
    Source CTSA Pendant la période des fêtes de fin d'années, le nombre de donneurs diminue dangereusement. Le site de Clamart du Centre de transfusion sanguine des armées (CTSA) invite fortement les donneurs des communes proches à profiter des vacances de...
  • Interview SDBR de Gaël-Georges Moullec, Historien
    photo SDBR 20.12.2016 par Alain Establier - « SECURITY DEFENSE Business Review » n°162 SDBR: Comment va la Russie aujourd’hui? Gaël-Georges Moullec * : Il n’y a plus d’ascenseur social dans la Russie d’aujourd’hui, ce qui est un problème moins connu,...
  • Chronique culturelle - 16 Déc. 2016
    Regiment de la marine (1757) - Planche extraite des Troupes du roi, infanterie française et étrangère, 1757, tome 1. Musée Armée 16.12.2016 source JFP 16 décembre 1690 : création des compagnies franches de la Marine. Par ordonnance, 82 compagnies franches...
  • Externalisation de la Défense et de la Sécurité en France ? - 15 Décembre
    Le Comité directeur de l'ANAJ-IHEDN a le plaisir de vous inviter à la conférence : Vers une externalisation de la Défense et de la Sécurité en France ? Guillaume FARDE Maître de conférences à Sciences Po Paris, auteur de Externaliser la sécurité et la...
  • Chronique culturelle - 24 Nov.
    24 novembre 1977 : premier vol du Super Etendard de série 24.11.2016 source JFP 24 novembre 885 : début du siège de Paris par les Vikings. Très actifs durant le IXè siècle, les Vikings ont pris l’habitude de remonter les fleuves du Nord de la France pour...
  • Sortie en librairie le 21 novembre du livre LÉGIONNAIRE
    source MAREUIL EDITIONS Pour la première fois, un ancien officier de la Légion et un Légionnaire donnent la parole à 64 de leurs camarades. Pendant 2 ans, Victor Ferreira a rencontré près d’une centaine de Légionnaires à travers le monde en leur posant...

Categories