October 1, 2015: Strategy Page

On September 20 2015 China successfully tested the latest version of its Long March satellite launcher; Long March 6 (LM 6). This version is optimized for putting multiple small satellites in orbit on the same mission and on short notice. The test launch put twenty small scientific satellites into orbit. LM 6 is a 103 ton liquid fueled rocket that can put a ton of payload into a 700 kilometers high orbit. LM 6 can operate from a standard satellite launch facility or from a TEL (transporter erector launcher) vehicle (which is basically a slightly larger trailer similar to those used for hauling tanks). LM 6 was also designed to be made ready for launch quickly (six days or so) giving it a military capability. That means if China has to get a surveillance or communications satellite in orbit quickly, LM 6 is the solution. China is also developing small surveillance and communications satellites for such emergencies.

China's main satellite launcher, the "Long March" rocket, is based on Russian designs, meaning it is simple, cheap and reliable. This has made China a major player in the satellite launching business. China competes on price. The U.S. Space Shuttle was retired because it was the most expensive way to get stuff into orbit. Satellites sent up via the Space Shuttle cost $25 million a ton. The Russians and Chinese will do it for under $10 million a ton. But insurance can more than double that cost if there have been a number of recent failures with Russian and Chinese boosters. This keeps more reliable American and European boosters in business. The Long March has a failure rate of about five percent, which was a little higher than twice the rate for the most used Russian launcher. The Space Shuttle failure rate was two percent, as were most Western satellite launchers.

 The Long March 3 and 4 have been doing most of the Chinese commercial launches since the 1980s. Currently the largest Long March 3 model weighs over 400 tons and can put 12 tons in low earth orbit and 5.5 tons in a high one (geostationary transfer orbit). The Chinese took their time to perfect Long March, requiring 28 years to make the first fifty launches, and nine years for the next fifty. So far, Long March has carried out 202 successful launches.

While military satellites get more media attention, the real business of space, and where the Chinese put most of their efforts, is in commercial satellites. The Chinese have noted that since the 1980s space satellites have become big business. By 2012 there were about 1,000 active satellites in orbit, and nearly half of them were American. The number of satellites has been going down a bit since then because individual satellites last longer and can do more. It is expected that the number of satellites will now start to rise rapidly because of the popularity of mini-satellites (under 100 kg/220 pounds). Some of these mini-sats are much smaller (under ten kg) and still useful. In some cases dozens of mini-sats are put into orbit by one launcher.

About 75 percent of all satellites are non-military. Most of them are commercial, the rest government non-military birds. Since 2001 satellite industry revenues more than doubled, from $86 billion (in 2014 dollars) a year to over $200 billion now. The cost of the satellites is less than ten percent of annual satellite revenues. About four percent of the money comes from launching all those satellites and 36 percent of those launches are military. The U.S. has about a third of the launch business, mainly because of the requirement that U.S. classified satellites be launched by American rockets. About half the satellite launches (and two-thirds of the satellites) were for communications, which generates the most income (mostly for TV, followed by data). The U.S. remains the major manufacturer of commercial satellites, with over half of the market. China sees opportunity in all this and has come a long way in a short time to take advantage of it.

In 1957 the Russian Sputnik was the first satellite ever put in orbit. The U.S. followed in 1958. Since then, ten other nations have done the same. France launched its first satellite in 1965, Japan and China in 1970, Britain in 1971, and India in 1980. Israel launched its first satellite in 1988. Ukraine did so in 1995. Iran claims to have put a satellite in orbit recently, but there is no conclusive proof. North Korea put a dead (non-responsive) satellite up in December 2012 and South Korea followed with a successful launch of a very active satellite a month later.

Since 2010 China has launched about 20 satellites a year and by the end of the decade expect to have 200 satellites in orbit. This is about a fifth of the total and nearly half as many as the United States. At that point China expects to be launching 30 satellites a year and accounting for over a quarter of the worldwide launch capability. All this momentum has been the result of three decades of effort and an enormous spurt of activity since 2010. In the two decades after 1990 China carried out 30 commercial satellite launches, putting 36 satellites in orbit. Now China puts that many satellites up in 18 months.

September 27, 2015: Strategy Page

On September 7th a Pakistani UAV used laser guided missiles to kill three Islamic terrorists in North Waziristan. This was a first for Pakistan. While Pakistan has officially condemned and opposed similar strikes by American UAVs in North Waziristan, it never banned the American use of armed UAVs in certain parts of Pakistan. The U.S. refused to sell Pakistan UAVs that could carry laser guided missiles, mainly because the Americans don’t trust Pakistan. So Pakistan went looking for other suppliers and eventually bought a similar UAV (the CH-2) from China in 2009. Pakistan was soon producing a local version, Burraq. The earliest CH-2 models were unarmed, but the latest version (CH-3A) can carry a max payload of 180 kg for six hours. China supplies two missiles similar to the American Hellfire. One of these, the laser guided AR-1, weighs 45 kg and has a range of 8,000 meters. This is said to be the one Pakistan is using.

Pakistan apparently won’t stop with the Burraq. There is a more advanced armed UAV being offer by China. Called the Wing Loong (that's Chinese for Pterodactyl, a Jurassic period flying dinosaur) this UAV which can be equipped to carry two BA-7 laser guided missiles (similar to the Hellfire) or two 60 kg (110 pound) GPS guided bombs (similar to the U.S. SDB). This UAV has been around for a while but it has taken time to get it working reliably when used to hit targets with laser guided missiles.   Since 2008 Chinese aircraft manufacturer (AVIC) has been showing off photos and videos of a prototype for a clone of the American MQ-1 Predator UAV that tuned out to be Wing Loong. This in 2012 one was seen in flight, over the capital of Uzbekistan, which, along with UAE (United Arab Emirates) were the first export customers. It was later revealed that development on Wing Loong began in 2005, first flight was in 2007 and Chinese troops got the first ones in 2008 for testing under more realistic conditions.

While Wing Loong is similar in shape to the larger American MQ-9 Reaper, in size it's almost identical to the 1.2 ton Predator. Wing Loong weighs 1.1 tons, has a 14 meter (46 feet) wingspan, and is 9 meters (28 feet) long. It has max altitude of 5,300 meters (16,400 feet) and an endurance of over 20 hours. Payload is 200 kg. The base price of Wing Loong is about a million dollars. But additional sensors and fire control equipment for one able to use laser guided missiles increases that to several million dollars. That is still about half the price of a similarly equipped Predator. Unlike the United States, which restricts the sale of armed UAVS, China will sell to anyone who can pay, no questions asked. The only problem Pakistan has is a shortage of cash. That’s why Pakistan cooperates at all with the United States; billions of dollars in military aid.

For several decades a growing number of Chinese commercial firms have been developing military UAVs. China is quite proud of its thriving commercial UAV industry, which produced a wide range of models. For example in mid-2014 China announced that a civilian UAV, used for mapping and land use surveys, recently stayed in the air for 30 hours, setting a record for Chinese UAVs. The previous record for Chinese UAVs was 16 hours.  This long endurance UAV was developed by a government agency (CASM, or Chinese Academy of Surveying & Mapping) and has limited military use. CASM has developed several small UAVs for survey duties. These UAVs all feature lightweight materials and tend to be under 50 kg (110 pounds) with small payloads (usually 5 kg/11 pounds). These take advantage of new lightweight and powerful cameras to economically monitor Chinese farming and natural resources. Some of these UAVs are also believed to be used by the police and security services.  Export customers are welcome.

September 29, 2015: Strategy Page

The growing availability of small, inexpensive UAVs that can (and are) used by criminals and Islamic terrorists has led to the development of several Anti-UAV Defense Systems (AUDS). These systems consist of multiple sensors (visual, heat, radar) to detect the small UAVs and a focused radio signal jammer to cut the UAV off from its controller and prevent (in most cases) the UAV from completing its mission. The detection range of AUDS is usually 10 kilometers or more and jamming range varies from a few kilometers to about eight.

AUDS can be defeated. For example a user can send a small UAV off on a pre-programmed mission. This can be to take photos or deliver a small explosive. No one has tried, at least successfully, using armed micro-UAVs yet but North Korea has been caught using small recon UAVs flying under automatic control.

If these UAVs are still detected they have to be destroyed via ground or air-to-air fire. This the South Koreans and Israelis have had to do several times. The Israelis were dealing with Palestinian Islamic terrorist groups using small UAVs, often Iranian models. South Korea and Israel has responded by adding more sensor systems, especially new radars that can detect the smallest UAVs moving at any speed and altitude. An American firm has demonstrated a high-powered laser that can take down small UAVs several kilometers away.

North Korea had been interested in UAVs since the 1970s but had never bought or built a lot of them. In the late 1980s North Korea acquired some of China’s first generation UAVs (ASN-104s). These were 140 kg (304 pound) aircraft with a 30 kg (66 pound) payload and endurance of two hours. Very crude by today’s standards but it took real time video and higher resolution still photos. In the 1990s the North Koreans produced some ASN-104s, apparently by just copying the Chinese ones they had. In the 1990s North Korea got some Russian DR-3 jet powered UAVs. These were faster but less useful than the ASN-104s. Attempts to use the DR-3 as the basis for a cruise missile design failed. In the 1990s North Korea also got some Russian Pchela-1T UAVs. These were very similar to the ASN-104s and that means not very useful at all. The Chinese and Russians used these first generation UAVs mainly for correcting artillery fire and this is what North Korea was seen doing with them, particularly North Korean coastal artillery.

In 2014 South Korea was alarmed to discover three North Korean UAVs that had crashed in South Korea. It was soon discovered that North Korea was using modified versions of the commercial Chinese SKY-09P UAV. North Korea gave the SKY-09Ps a new paint job (to make it harder to spot), a muffler (to make it less detectable) and installed a different camera. The SKY-09P was used via its robotic mode, where the SKY-09P flew to pre-programmed GPS coordinates, taking digital photos over selected areas and returned with those photos stored on a memory card. The SKY-09Ps found in South Korea had GPS coordinates in their guidance system showing they originated and were to return to a location in North Korea. The memory cards showed pictures of South Korean government (mainly military) facilities.

Thus the most successful UAV the North Koreans ever used turned out to be a Chinese commercial model, the SKY-09P. This is a 12 kg (26 pound) delta wing aircraft with a wingspan of 1.92 meters (6.25 feet), propeller in the front and a payload of three kg (6.6 pounds). It is launched via a catapult and lands via a parachute. Endurance is 90 minutes and cruising speed is 90 kilometers an hour. When controlled from the ground it can go no farther than 40 kilometers from the controller. But when placed on automatic it can go about 60 kilometers into South Korea and return with photos. These things cost the North Koreans a few thousand dollars each. While South Korea says they detected two of the three crashed North Korea UAVs no other details were provided. The Chinese manufacturer denied selling anything to North Korea, but the North Koreans typically use a third party for purchases like this.  

Ever since the release of the 2013 ‘EU-China 2020 Strategic Agenda for Cooperation’, counter-terrorism officially features in bilateral meetings. The section on peace and security, for instance, states the need to ‘hold special consultations on issues of anti-terrorism at an appropriate time’– and talks were indeed held at the October 2014 ASEM meeting. The EU statement released after that summit declared that China and the EU ‘reviewed the situation in the Middle East, northern Africa and the Sahel […] and agreed to increase cooperation to counter the common threat of extremism and terrorism in these regions’.

Despite such statements, however, no concrete roadmap for bilateral cooperation in this area has yet materialised. Although normative differences continue to represent a serious obstacle to greater cooperation, they are not insurmountable given the common

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17 septembre 2015 Romandie.com (AFP)

Tokyo - Des sénateurs en sont venus aux mains jeudi au Parlement japonais avant l'adoption en commission de nouvelles lois de défense autorisant l'envoi de militaires à l'étranger pour aider un allié en difficulté, une première depuis la guerre.

La voie est désormais ouverte pour un vote en session plénière au Sénat, procédure qui entérinerait les textes et qui doit intervenir dans les heures ou jours à venir, malgré une opposition farouche.

Jeudi à deux reprises, devant le Premier ministre Shinzo Abe impassible, des membres de l'opposition et de la coalition au pouvoir ont encerclé le président d'une commission spéciale et se sont bousculés et empoignés vigoureusement.

Le parlementaire d'opposition Tetsuro Fukuyama a ensuite prononcé un discours enflammé expliquant pourquoi son parti avait déposé une motion pour tenter d'empêcher l'adoption de cette réinterprétation de la Constitution pacifiste du Japon.

Le parti au pouvoir écoute-t-il les voix du public ? Vous pouvez faire tout ce que vous voulez parce que vous avez la majorité. Est-ce bien cela que vous pensez ?, a-t-il lancé au bord des larmes.

La tension est montée d'heure en heure et l'adoption des textes en commission a été reportée à plusieurs reprises, les parlementaires bloquant les portes et encombrant les couloirs en signe de protestation.

Selon les médias japonais, 13 personnes ont été arrêtées mercredi soir pour entrave à agent de police pendant une manifestation qui a rassemblé quelque 13.000 personnes devant le Parlement.

Ces dernières semaines, des milliers de Japonais ont défilé dans les rues presque quotidiennement, dans un pays où les manifestations sont rares.

Bien que la Constitution actuelle, qui empêche les soldats japonais de prendre part à des combats en dehors de l'auto-défense, ait été imposée par l'occupant américain, nombre de Japonais y sont attachés et estiment que tout changement remettrait en cause le caractère pacifiste de leur pays. Ils craignent que le Japon ne soit entraîné dans un conflit lointain aux côtés des Américains.

Mais selon le Premier ministre Abe, une évolution des lois est nécessaire pour faire face à des menaces grandissantes venant de Chine et de Corée du Nord.

13 septembre 2015 Par Olivier Fourt - RFI

On les appelle les « forteresses navales ». La Chine en train d'équiper militairement plusieurs îles (dont certaines ont été annexées) pour construire un réseau de bases en haute mer, destiné à élargir son influence économique et militaire dans la région.

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15.09.2015 Pacific Sentinel
 

China is deploying its largest maritime patrol vessel, the Haijing 2901 to the eastern island of Zhoushan for a potential war of attrition with Japan over the disputed East China Sea, according to the Tokyo-based Sankei Shimbun on Sept. 13.

It has been Japan's policy to deploy its coast guard vessels instead of warships to prevent its territorial conflict with China over the Diaoyutai islands (Diaoyu to China, Senkaku to Japan, which controls them), from escalating into a full-scale war. The deployment of the Haijing 2901, which is also the world's largest maritime patrol vessel with a greater displacement than the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers of the United States, will eventually challenge this policy since Japan's coast guard has no vessel that can counter it.

Read the full story at Want China Times

16 September 2015 By Franz-Stefan Gady – Pacific Sentinel

At a recent naval conference a Chinese Vice Admiral did not mince words.

Speaking at this year’s First Sea Lord/RUSI International Sea Power Conference in London, Chinese Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai, commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) North Sea Fleet, did not shy away from controversy. He emphatically stated that the South China Sea belongs to China.

“The South China Sea, as the name indicates, is a sea area that belongs to China. And the sea from the Han dynasty a long time ago where the Chinese people have been working and producing from the sea,” he said through an interpreter, according to Defense News.

Yubai was sitting on a panel with the U.S. Assistant Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Rear Adm. Jeff Harley and the President of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Command and Staff College, Vice Admiral Umio Otsuka, discussing the role of naval power in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Yubai’s statement came in response to Otsuka criticizing the land reclamation activities of “certain state actors” in the region. “Land reclamation conducted by some countries has been a problem in the South China Sea (and) we have to admit that the rule of law is at risk in this region. The JMSDF will secure the credibility of a deterrence capability and seek a multilateral framework in the Indo-Pacific region,” he said.

Read the full story at The Diplomat

Sept 13, 2015 defense-aerospace.com

(Source: NASA Space Flight blog; posted Sept 12, 2015)

A super-secretive satellite was launched by China from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center on Saturday. Launch of the unknown spacecraft – unofficially claimed to be the Communications Engineering Test Satellite -1 (TXJSSY-1) – took place at 15:40 UTC using a Long March-3B (Chang Zheng-3B) rocket, as the Chinese continue their build up in space.

There is very little information regarding the satellite, with no announcement provided in the Chinese media, despite the media heavily controlled by the Chinese government.

However, rumors circling on specialized Chinese space forums point to this launch involving the first Great Wall (Changcheng) satellite – a new series of Chinese satellites dedicated to early warning similar to the American Space Based Infra-Red Sensor satellites. One unofficial source claimed the spacecraft is the Communications Engineering Test Satellite -1 (TXJSSY-1)

Recently, Japan’s Kyodo News reported that China was building a missile defense system to detect a ballistic missile attack. The report was based on Chinese military documents that referred the development of an experimental early warning satellite program.

Additionally the report pointed out that China had started the development of an X-band radar system as part of a ground-based interceptor system. (end of excerpt)

Click here for the full story, on the NASAspaceflight blog

BEIJING, Sept. 11 (UPI)

A proposed program by China and Russia to jointly develop a heavy-lift helicopter could begin next year as the two near finalization of the project agreement.

"The project is progressing smoothly, and we are discussing with our Russian counterparts terms and clauses in the agreement," Wu Ximing, chief helicopter designer at Aviation Industry Corp of China, was quoted by China Daily. "The negotiations should conclude before the end of this year and the development will start next year."

China Daily, with headquarters in Beijing, reported production of the aircraft would take place in China.

China will supply avionics systems and advanced materials for the helicopter, while Russia will be responsible for the aerodynamic design, transmission gear and de-icing equipment.

According to the Aviation Industry Corp of China, the helicopter will have the capability to carry 10 tons of cargo within the cabin or more than 100 people.

It has a maximum cruising speed of about 184 miles per hour and a range of 394 miles.

The aircraft would conduct its first flight around 2020.

"Compared with Russia's Mil Mi-26, now the largest helicopter used in China, the new aircraft will be more adaptable to plateaus and tropical regions," said Huang Chuanyue, deputy chief engineer at Avicopter, AVIC's helicopter branch. "This is very important because China has vast plateau areas and mountainous terrain, as well as many islands that are difficult to access by other means."

China Daily reported that Huang said China will need at least 200 heavy-lift helicopters within the next 30 years.

Worldwide demand for heavy-lift helicopters during that period will reach about 2,000 and "we expect this helicopter will corner about 25 percent of the international market for this type," he said.

Heavy-lift helicopters in use worldwide include Boeing's CH-47 Chinook, Sikorsky's CH-53E Super Stallion and Russia's Mil Mi-26.

September 5, 2015: Strategy Page

In April, May and June of 2015 Japanese fighters had to take off and intercept intruders 173 times. Chinese aircraft were the cause 66 percent of the time otherwise they were usually Russian. During the same three months in 2014 there were 340 Japanese fighter sorties to deal with intruders and 70 percent of the time the intruders were Chinese. In 2013 Japanese aircraft went up over 300 times to confront Chinese aircraft (often recon aircraft) coming too close to Japanese air space. Thus 2013 was the first year Chinese intrusions exceeded Russian ones. This has been coming for several years. In 2011 nearly 43 percent of the sorties were for Chinese aircraft. That's almost three times as many Chinese intrusions as in 2010. Russian aerial activity has been declining for years and this is believed due to the difficulty and expense of keeping elderly Russian aircraft operational. Russia cannot afford to replace its Cold War era aircraft.

Although Russian warplanes continue to be a nuisance off the coast Japan considers Russian activity much less threatening. The Russian aircraft are flying more training missions in the Pacific and the Japanese have come to understand how it is nearly impossible for Russian pilots getting out to sea without showing up on a Japanese radar or coming close to Japanese air space. That’s because there is a lot of Japanese airspace off the east coast of Eurasia, so Russian warplanes out there cannot avoid passing close to Japanese air defense radars. China does not have this problem.

In 2011, the 355 Japanese anti-intrusion sorties were up 17 percent over the previous year, while in 2010, sorties were up 29 percent. They have continued to climb. All this should be measured against Cold War activity, which peaked in 1984 with 944 interception sorties. After the Cold War ended in 1991 (when there were 488 sorties), the number of intrusions fell through the 1990s, but since 2000 have increased.

These intrusions have been increasing sharply since 2008. Initially the Japanese launched many aircraft for each intrusion. For example, in 2008 a Russian Tu-95 entered Japanese airspace near an uninhabited island about 600 kilometers south of Tokyo. Although the Russian aircraft was in Japanese airspace for only about three minutes the Japanese launched 22 aircraft to intercept. This force included two AWACs aircraft and twenty fighters. No Russian aircraft entered Japanese airspace without permission again until 2013 and the Russians apologized for that one. But as the intrusions increased, the number of interceptors sent out for each incident decreased.

The Japanese believe that one cause for this increased activity is more electronic and maritime patrol aircraft are available to the Chinese who have a desire to gather as much information as possible about their strongest potential foe in the area. But the main reason is the dispute with China over the Senkaku Islands near Okinawa. China and Japan both claim these uninhabited islets, which are 320 kilometers southeast of the Chinese mainland, 167 kilometers northeast of Taiwan, and 426 kilometers southwest of Japan (Okinawa, which China also has claims on). The Senkaku Islands and have a total area of 6.3 square kilometers. Taiwan also claims the Senkakus, which were discovered by Chinese fishermen in the 16th century and taken over by Japan in 1879. They are valuable now because of the 380 kilometer economic zone nations can claim in their coastal waters. This includes fishing and possible underwater oil and gas fields.

Jul 28, 2015 Source: Xinhua News Agency

Beijing  - The rocket will serve the final chapter of China's three-step -- orbiting, landing and returning -- lunar program and the building of manned space stations.

Chinese scientists on Friday successfully tested the power system of a Long March-5 carrier rocket scheduled for flight in 2016.

Development of the rocket, the fifth-generation launch vehicle of the Long March family, has entered a "runoff" phase, according to the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense.

The rocket will have a payload capacity of 25 tonnes to low Earth orbits, or 14 tonnes to geostationary transfer orbit, about twice the current capacity. The would-be capacity will be equivalent to that of mainstream carrier rockets now in use around the world.

The rocket will serve the final chapter of China's three-step -- orbiting, landing and returning -- lunar program and the building of manned space stations.

The Long March rocket family has completed more than 200 missions since 1970, when a Long March-1 rocket sent China's first satellite, Dong Fang Hong 1, or "the East is Red", into Earth orbit.