An F-22 Raptor, Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4 and French air force Rafale fly in formation as part of a trilateral exercise held at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va., Dec. 7, 2015. The exercise simulates a highly contested, degraded and operationally limited environment where U.S. and partner pilots and ground crews can test their readiness. (U.S. Air Force photo/Senior Airman Kayla Newman)

November 15, 2015: Strategy Page

Deliveries of Typhoon jet fighters has been delayed for the second time in a year because of manufacturing quality problems. The current delay has to do with assembly of the fuselage and does not cause a short term safety problem but rather a long-term one. If not corrected the aircraft would face a shorter service life (number of flight hours) that could only be corrected with expensive rebuilding.

Developed and built by a consortium of the largest European defense firms Typhoon was a replacement for the Cold War era Tornado fighter (a contemporary of the Su-27, F-15 and F-16). Development began in the 1980s and first flight was in 1994, after the Cold War unexpectedly ended. This reduced the urgency to get Typhoon into service, which didn’t happen until 2003. At that point many of the main customers (European NATO members) began to have second thoughts. The huge Russian (Soviet Union) air force faded away in the 1990s and there was no new air threat to replace it. By 2007 most customers for Typhoon were cutting their orders in a major way. For example Britain initially planned to buy 232 (Germany was to get 180, Italy 121, and Spain 87.) Britain already had 144 Eurofighters from the first two batches by 2009 and bought few additional aircraft after that.

The Typhoon turned out to be a pretty good warplane. This was discovered early on. By 2008 there were 135 Eurofighter Typhoon fighters in service, and they aircraft have been in the air for a combined 35,000 hours (as of the end of 2007.) Half those hours were flown in 2007, as the Eurofighter entered regular service in several nations. About 20 percent of those flight hours were for flight testing, but the rest were for day-to-day operations. The future looked bright. But since then, competition from American and Russian fighters, for export sales, and lack of European enthusiasm for more purchases, has dimmed sales prospects. Typhoon got into combat in 2011 over Libya and performed well, but the demand from export customers (and local ones) was just not there.

Each aircraft costs over $120 million, including development costs. Current estimates indicate that about 600 will eventually be built. The Typhoon is a somewhat stealthy multi-role fighter. It is fast, maneuverable, and carries a lot of weapons. It also can be used for attack missions. This 23 ton aircraft will be the principal fighter in the air forces of Britain, Spain, Germany, and Italy. The Typhoon is closer in capability to the F-15, than the F-22, and is competing with the F-35 for many export sales. The Typhoon was purchased by Saudi Arabia, mainly to provide protection from Iran and some other Persian Gulf states did the same. But this was not enough to make up for the lost sales in Europe.

Typhoon has since been modified to operate as a fighter-bomber and can carry up to seven tons of weapons. Normally it carries a combination of smart bombs, missiles and additional fuel tanks and can stay in the air for two to four hours per sorties depending on the mission.

16 September 2015 Ministry of Defence, Defence Equipment and Support and The Rt Hon Michael Fallon MP

The Ministry of Defence has awarded a £300m contract to sustain a key air-to-air missile used by RAF Typhoon jets, supporting over 400 jobs across the UK.

MBDA (UK) Ltd will design and build the new variant of their Advanced Short Range Air-to-Air Missile (ASRAAM) missile, incorporating updated sub-systems into the current ASRAAM design. This will make it possible to upgrade the weapon system as necessary.

The eight-year contract will directly sustain around 200 highly skilled technology jobs across MBDA sites in Bristol, Stevenage, Hertfordshire and Lostock, Lancashire and the UK-based supply chain, with around another 200 supported in wider industry.

Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, said:

ASRAAM missiles provide our Typhoon jets with battle-winning technology on combat missions, and these upgrades will help to make it a missile for the future, ready for use on our new Lightning II aircraft.

This contract is part of our £160 billion equipment plan, supported by a rising Defence budget. It will sustain hundreds of skilled British jobs and ensure that the RAF continues to perform at its very best.

Chief of Materiel (Air) at the MOD’s Defence Equipment and Support organisation, Air Marshal Simon Bollom, said:

Sustainment of the UK’s short range air-to-air capability is essential as it supports standing operational commitments such as the protection of UK airspace and any other air defence roles.

The contract provides the most cost-effective way of maintaining this capability and allows what is a very effective missile to be retained whilst ensuring continued compatibility with the aircraft we launch it from.

ASRAAM is currently in-service on Typhoon and Tornado GR4 aircraft, and will be integrated onto the Lightning II platform in time for first aircraft delivery.

September 14, 2015 By Eurofighter GmgH

Germany: The Eurofighter Consortium today welcomes the State of Kuwait as a new member of the Eurofighter community.

This new international success follows an order from the Sultanate of Oman for 12 aircraft in December 2012 and it is a further evidence of growing interest in the Eurofighter Typhoon across the globe and in the Gulf Region in particular with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Sultanate of Oman who have already ordered this combat aircraft.

On behalf of the consortium and its Eurofighter Partner Companies (EPC) the CEO of Eurofighter, Alberto Gutierrez, said: “This new agreement is the confirmation of the superiority of the Eurofighter over its competitors and will provide a great opportunity for further Eurofighter orders. We are delighted to welcome Kuwait as the newest member of our Eurofighter Typhoon family. The Eurofighter is already proven and trusted by six nations to perform in all operational environments.”

With Kuwait, the Eurofighter Typhoon confirms its role as Europe’s largest military collaborative programme with a total of 599 aircraft committed. It provides leading-edge technologies and strengthens Europe’s defence industry in international competition. More than 100,000 jobs in 400 supplier companies are involved in this four-nation programme and deliver significant contributions.

Since entry into service of the first Eurofighter Typhoon at the end of 2003, 444 aircraft have been delivered to six nations: Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Austria and Saudi Arabia. In December 2012, Oman became the seventh customer and ordered a total of twelve aircraft.

Eurofighter Typhoon is currently in service at 22 operational units and up to now, the whole fleet has completed more than 300,000 flying hours worldwide.

May 29, 2015 by Think Defence

Getting ready for Tornado out of service and continued evolution of the aircraft with Brimstone, Storm Shadow, Paveway IV, Meteor and E-Scan radar, the Typhoon continues to grow, at a glacial pace perhaps but slow and steady is not always a bad thing.

The MoD has let a £1.7m contract to BAE to research a common weapon launcher for Typhoon that can be used to carry multiple weapons on a single hardpoint, much like the existing Brimstone launcher but also to include other weapons, principally, Meteor Paveway IV and a future SPEAR Cap 3.

In the delicate balancing act between Typhoon and F35B (and beyond) I have started to think for a while we need to get behind Typhoon and reconsider our Tranche 3 commitment.

February 27, 2015: Strategy Page

In late 2014 Britain certified (configured and tested) their Paveway IV smart bomb to operate from their new Typhoon fighter bombers. The Paveway IV was developed in Britain and is not used by the U.S. Air Force or Navy. Introduced in 2008, over a thousand 500 pound (228 kg) Paveway IVs have been dropped in combat so far. These were dropped by the older Tornado fighter-bomber. Saudi Arabia, the one export customer for Paveway IV has used them on their Typhoons recently against targets in Syria.

In the U.S. JDAM and other GPS-only weapons are much more popular, although some Paveway I, II, III type bombs are still used. The original Paveway laser guided smart bombs were developed in the United States but a British manufacturer obtained a license to develop a variant (Paveway IV) that met standards the Royal Air Force wanted (like GPS and inertial guidance in addition to the original laser guidance). The JDAM is a later and cheaper guided bomb design that uses GPS rather than laser. Paveway was developed in the 1960s, when there were no GPS satellites but lasers were new and it was now possible to use laser guidance in a bomb. GPS did not become available until two decades after the first Paveway entered service.

The U.S. and Britain jointly develop more upgrades for the Paveway IV. These include a low explosive model (to limit collateral damage), another model has a penetrator cap (to hit underground bunkers) which is a novel feature for a 228 kg bomb. There are also improvements in the American anti-jamming technology as well as the laser seeker technology.

The Paveway system is actually a kit that is attached to an unguided bomb. The 50.5 kg (111 pound) Paveway kit contains guidance electronics, computers, and battery powered winglets. But to work the carrying aircraft must have a fire control system that enables the pilot to get the GPS data (received from troops on the ground) into the Paveway IV equipped bomb.

Once attached to a one ton, half ton, or quarter ton bomb, the Paveway IV can achieve precise (within a meter or less) accuracy using a laser designator. Now there is also GPS guidance to land within ten meters (31 feet) of the aiming point. The U.S. firm that manufactures the Paveway bombs, Raytheon, has produced over 250,000 kits so far, of which about twenty percent have been used in combat with great success.

Earlier versions of Paveway did not have GPS. Most just only had laser guidance. Britain has since added GPS to Paveway IV. While more accurate, laser guidance requires that someone on the ground or in the air be shining a laser on the target. The Paveway then homes in on the reflected laser light (of a particular frequency). GPS guided bombs can hit the target under bad weather conditions and only have to worry about jamming of the GPS satellite signal.

20 January 2015 BAE Systems

BAE Systems have been awarded a £112M contract by the UK's Ministry of Defence (MOD) to extend the Typhoon Availability Service (TAS) for the in-service support of the Royal Air Force’s (RAF) Typhoon fleet by 15 months.

The contract extension means the Company will continue to work alongside the RAF in meeting Typhoon’s operational requirements until early 2016. The extension will help to sustain around 650 jobs for BAE Systems’ personnel based at RAF Coningsby and RAF Lossiemouth supporting the Typhoon fleet.  Under the contract, BAE Systems is responsible for delivering Typhoon aircrew and ground crew training, maintenance of the aircraft, along with providing technical support and managing spares, repairs and logistics.

Nigel Davey, BAE Systems Director for Military Air Support said: “This agreement is a continuation of a strong partnership with the MOD and RAF to support its Typhoon fleet.

“Over the past six years we have worked hard to develop a service which ensures the RAF is able to meet its operational requirements while providing the best value for the UK’s taxpayers.

“BAE Systems is proud to support the fleet at RAF Coningsby, RAF Lossiemouth and in the Falkland Islands as it continues to perform its vital role in safeguarding our nation both at home and overseas.”

Defence Minister Philip Dunne added: “This contract will deliver vital aircraft maintenance to the RAF Typhoon Force, ensuring the availability of the Typhoon fleet to meet its operational commitments. The new contract incorporates best practice and lessons learnt during the first six years of service, improving the way the RAF is supported and making sure we can continue to keep the UK secure, both at home and abroad.

“Alongside recent announcements for weapon capability upgrades, this contract demonstrates our continuing commitment to maintain the aircraft’s status as a world class multi role combat aircraft of choice now and in the future.”

BAE Systems’ work on the TAS contract has delivered tangible savings for the MOD. For example, from 2013, through increased efficiencies and continued improvement in aircraft performance, the Company has been able to increase the amount of time between Typhoon’s maintenance intervals from 400 to 500 hours. This initiative followed a detailed analysis to ensure the changes could be implemented without compromising safety. The result of this change generated a saving to the MOD of more than £100M and has increased availability of the jets to the RAF.

16 déc. 2014 Forces TV

04 December 2014 BAE Systems
 

A Typhoon aircraft has successfully completed the first in a series of live firings of the MBDA Meteor Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missile. This continues the series of trials we lead to demonstrate integration of the Meteor missile with Typhoon's weapon system.

Following contract signature in 2013 for the full integration of Meteor onto Typhoon, the trials continue to demonstrate that the weapon operates effectively with the aircraft.

Led by ourselves with support from MBDA, Selex, Qinetiq and MOD, the trials were conducted  in November 2014  at the MOD’s Hebrides firing range in the UK and further developed and tested the integration of the missile with the weapon system as well as expanding the jettison envelope by conducting firings at different altitudes and speeds. The trials also tested the interface of the missile with the weapon system for both pre-launch priming and post launch datalink functions between the missile and radar.

Test pilot Nat Makepeace flew the sortie and  said: “The aircraft and the weapon performed exactly as expected.  It’s very easy and intuitive to operate, and the trials demonstrated that we can operate in an expanded envelope safely and accurately.  This is a significant step forward for the full integration of the Meteor missile onto the Typhoon aircraft.”

Produced by MBDA, Meteor is an active radar guided missile designed to provide a multi-shot capability against long-range manoeuvring targets, such as fast jets, small unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles in a heavy electronic countermeasures environment.

Capable of engaging air targets during day and night, and in all-weather conditions, the Meteor will complement Typhoon’s existing missile systems, providing pilots with a greater choice of weapons during combat.

Further firing trials are scheduled to be carried out as part of the Meteor Integration contract to fully expand the launch envelope and weapon system integration which will culminate in the integration being complete in 2017.

These trials take place in a year that has seen progress across a range of programmes for Typhoon. The UK RAF are now operating the most advanced Typhoon to date with the latest Phase 1 Enhancement package now in operation. This upgrade delivers true simultaneous swing-role capability to Typhoon. Progress is also being made across a number of weapons programmes including the award of a full integration contract for the Storm Shadow weapon and the first multiple release of a Paveway IV bomb.

A £800m contract to develop and fit the Captor E-Scan radar was signed in November which will give Typhoon one of the most advanced radar systems in the world, providing a wider field of regard than any other combat aircraft. Typhoon is already regarded as one of the world’s leading swing-role combat aircraft and continues to be upgraded to provide decades of effective, relevant effect. 

Two 6 Squadron Typhoon jets at RAF Leuchars [Picture: Senior Aircraftman Matt Baker, UK MoD]

8 September 2014 Ministry of Defence

Number 1 (Fighter) Squadron marks relocation with a special 8-ship formation in the shape of a number 1.

18.07.2014 by Airbus DS

Eurofighter Typhoon Capability Manager and pilot Paul Smith highlights the advantages of the new radar system.

30/04/2014 Michel Cabirol – LaTribune.fr (Agences)

Selon la Cour fédérale des comptes, le programme d'avions de combat coûtera environ 60 milliards d'euros à l'Allemagne. Soit le double de ce qui avait été prévu.

Le programme d'avions de combat Eurofighter coûtera environ 60 milliards d'euros au gouvernement allemand, soit le double de ce qui avait été prévu, estime la Cour fédérale des comptes dans un rapport publié mercredi. Accusé par la Cour des comptes allemande d'avoir sous-évalué le coût total du programme, Berlin a pourtant réduit le nombre d'appareils commandés au consortium piloté par Airbus Group qui produit l'Eurofighter, annulant en février dernier une commande de 37 avions sur un total de 180 unités.

Le gonflement du coût total du programme s'explique notamment par la hausse des coûts de maintenance des appareils, écrit la Cour des comptes allemande. Le budget de 11,8 milliards d'euros calculé en 1997 par le ministère allemand de la Défense pour l'achat de 180 appareils, suffirait à en acquérir seulement 140, lit-on dans le rapport.

Un coût unitaire à 57 millions d'euros ?

En 2011, le coût unitaire d'un Eurofighter avait été évalué à 57 millions d'euros lors de la livraison des premiers appareils. Pourtant le NAO (National Audit Office), la Cour des comptes britannique, avait estimé le coût unitaire à 111 millions de livres (134,8 millions d'euros au cours du 30 avril), dont 72 millions de livres (87,4 millions d'euros) pour le seul coût de production  pour une cible de 160 Typhoon pour la Royal Air Force.

L'Eurofighter est régulièrement en concurrence avec deux autres avions de combat européens, le Rafale de Dassault Aviation, dont Airbus Group détient 46 %, et le Gripen du suédois Saab dans des appels d'offres internationaux. Et si jusqu'ici il a toujours été moins bien classé face au Rafale quand ils étaient confrontés dans des appels d'offre, l'Eurofighter, contrairement à l'avion français, a été exporté à plusieurs reprises (Arabie Saoudite, Autriche, Oman).

6 avril 2014 par Richard Rutily – 45eNord.ca

L’idée de ce billet a pris corps lorsque j’ai pris conscience que le processus d’acquisition d’un remplaçant aux CF-18 Canadiens avait des chances d’être assez long. La question que l’on peut se poser est: Pour qui joue le temps?

Comme SAAB n’a pas répondu au RFI du Canada, on examinera le cas du Super Hornet, puis du F35, du Typhoon et du Rafale

Super Hornet

En 2012, il restait 257 avions à livrer et les commandes pour 2013 pouvaient se monter à 66 E/F et 58 Growlers, ce qui permettait de tenir jusqu’en 2015.

Depuis la date limite a été repoussée à 2016, mais l’horizon se rapproche!

Il faut dire que la stratégie de Lockheed Martin consiste à s’appuyer sur l’USAF pour détruire toute possibilité de solution alternative à l’achat du F35. L’arrêt des lignes de production du F 15 et du F18 lui permettrait d’avoir un monopole dans la production des avions de chasse.

La Navy, elle, voudrait maintenir ouverte la ligne de production du F 18. Elle a  d’abord essayé des commandes E/F, mais des indiscrétions ont fait échouer la manœuvre, alors elle essaye avec le Growler, mais là encore elle a été contrainte d’annuler une notice de pré-sollicitation.

Il ne reste donc plus que l’export. La stratégie de Boeing consistait à gagner le Brésil puis le Canada, les EAU et le Qatar. Las, l’affaire Snowden aidant, le Brésil est allé au Gripen! Boeing essaye donc d’accélérer la décision du Canada, mais les hommes politiques du Canada ne sont pas pressés et préféreraient que la décision soit prise après les prochaines élections.

Le problème pour Boeing c’est qu’il faut acheter dès maintenant les items dont les délais de livraison sont longs.

Boeing told me they’ll have to make key decisions on long-lead items in early 2014. “When you lose a line,” said Aboulafia, “you almost never get it back.”http://breakingdefense.com/2013/12/forbes-champions-buying-super-hornets-f-18-vs-f-35-round-two/

On voit donc que la décision d’arrêter la ligne de production du F18 doit être prise maintenant.

JSF F-35

Le cas du F-35 est très différent de celui du F-18, le carnet de commande est théoriquement pléthorique et l’avion n’est pas encore au point.

Le problème du F-35 c’est la spirale de la mort. On appelle ainsi un cercle vicieux dont on ne sait pas sortir une fois qu’il s’est déclenché: à un prix objectif correspond un certain nombre d’avion que l’on peut vendre, si le prix augmente certain pays ne sont plus intéressés et le nombre d’avion à produire baisse. Cette baisse fait augmenter le prix et le cycle recommence. Or le prix du F 35 a augmenté de 70%.

On est à la limite du cercle vicieux que l’on a décrit, et pour éviter qu’il ne s’enclenche Lockheed Martin fait preuve d’un optimisme ahurissant dans ses annonces sur le devenir du programme.

Mais si l’on s’en tient au passé pour juger de l’évolution du programme, on peut dire qu’elle est catastrophique:

Le programme F-35 a commencé en 2001 quand le programme X-35 a été choisi. A cette époque la livraison était prévue en 2011 et il s’agissait de la livraison d’un avion complètement opérationnel. Aujourd’hui un événement équivalent serait la livraison et l’IOC du Block 3F qui est prévue en 2021.

Après 13 ans de développement, l’horizon de la livraison qui, au départ, était à 10 ans, est maintenant à 7 ans. Il a fallu 13 ans pour réduire la distance de l’horizon de 3 ans! Lockheed Martin jure qu’à partir de maintenant les délais seront tenus et les coûts vont baisser, mais la version Block 2B dont l’IOC est nécessaire pour livrer en 2015 (dans un an) le F-35 aux Marines vient de voir son planning glisser de 13 mois. Si le taux de dérive se maintient, on ne devrait pas voir cette livraison avant 2019.

Vous l’avez compris, pour le F-35 le temps est un ennemi redoutable car il démontre la fausseté de la narrative en montrant la réalité.

Par exemple il démontre que la spirale de la mort est déjà enclenchée:

Royaume-Uni: commandes prévues 150; commandes prévisibles 48
Italie: commandes prévues 130; commandes prévisibles 90 (l’annulation complète de la commande est en discussion)
Pays bas: commandes prévues 85; commandes prévisibles 37
Canada: commandes prévues 65; commandes prévisibles?
Norvège: commandes prévues 85; commandes prévisibles 52
Cela fait en tout 228 commandes en moins de la part des partenaires internationaux.

Typhoon

Le problème du Typhoon c’est que les 4 pays à l’origine du programme ne croient plus en son avenir.

Le Royaume-Uni a misé sur le F-35 et ne peut pas s’en libérer complètement car seul le F-35B peut être embarqué sur les deux portes avions en cours de construction. C’est quand même le pays qui serait le plus volontariste pour développer le programme mais il se heurte à la mauvaise santé financière de l’Italie et de l’Espagne et à la volonté d’économie de l’Allemagne qui a annulé la commande de 37 avions tranche 3B. Il y a eu une commande de la tranche 3A dernièrement, mais on peut se demander si la tranche 3B sera commandée.

De plus il faut nourrir quatre chaînes de production, si bien qu’il reste assez peu d’avion à produire, au rythme où on est obligé de les produire. Cela explique la déclaration de Tom Enders: «Je ne suis pas terriblement optimiste», a-t-il dit au sujet de l’avenir de l’Eurofighter.«Nous espérons remporter encore un ou deux succès à l’exportation mais nous devons aussi nous préparer à un scénario où, en raison d’absence de commandes à l’exportation, nous devrons bientôt réduire la production», a-t-il expliqué. Faute de quoi, les lignes d’assemblage (au nombre de 4), verront leur plan de charge réduit à zéro à partir des années 2017-2018.

Bien que de façon moins critique, le temps joue aussi contre le Typhoon.

Rafale

Le Rafale est un cas particulier car il a une assurance vie. L’état Français s’est engagé à alimenter une cadence de production de 11 avions par an, qui est la cadence minimum qui permet de maintenir la chaîne ouverte.

Au 1er Janvier 2014 Dassault avait livré 126 Rafale et il en restait à peu près 100 à livrer ce qui fait 9 ans. Cela nous mène donc en 2023. Bien sur l’état Français souhaiterait étaler ses commandes en donnant la priorité à l’export, c’est pourquoi la LPM (qui n’est qu’une prévision d’allocation de ressource mais qui n’est pas contraignante) fait l’hypothèse qu’il ne sera produit que 26 Rafale pour la France, entre 2014 et 2019. Si cela se vérifiait cela voudrait dire que l’on a produit 29 Rafale pour l’export ce qui repousserait la fin de la production du Rafale en 2026.

Le temps semble être critique pour la France mais pas pour Dassault.

Conclusion

Aussi surprenant que cela paraisse, on risque de voir Boeing être forfait sur cet appel d’offre après avoir essayé d’en accélérer la sortie, et Eurofighter pourrait les suivre 3 ans après! Il ne resterait que le JSF F-35 et le Rafale, et dans ce cas plus l’appel d’offre sera tardif, plus le Rafale sera favorisé.

Cette conclusion va à l’encontre de l’intuition, mais elle est assez robuste. Prenons pour exemple le seul cas où il y a eu une confrontation entre le Rafale et le F-35, c’est-à-dire l’évaluation qui a été faite en 2002 par les Pays Bas: l’écart était insignifiant, la note du Rafale était de 6.95 et celle du F35 de 6.97, mais la comparaison se faisait entre un avion réel que l’on pouvait essayer et un avion sur spécifications. Or les spécifications du F-35 n’ont pas été tenues et ont du être dégradées tandis que le Rafale est devenu mature et a démontré des progrès continus pendant 12 ans. Il semble donc évident que si une évaluation devait se faire aujourd’hui, la position du Rafale serait plus favorable qu’elle n’a été à l’époque.