Dutch Elections Seen Reinforcing F-35 Supporters

Sept. 14, 2012 Source: Defense-Aerospace.com

THE HAGUE --- What will the outcome of the elections in the Netherlands mean for its fighter acquisition plans? It is probable that, despite the previous parliament’s opposition to the deal, it will finally go through, according to Dutch sources, as a by-product of negotiations to form a new governing coalition.

The results of the Sept. 12 election give a total of 74 seats out of 150 to parties that have previously opposed the controversial acquisition of the F-35: Labour PvdA (39 seats), Socialist Party SP (15 seats), Freedom Party PVV (Wilders, 15 seats), Green Left GL (3 seats) and Animal Party PvdD (2 seats). This bloc had 82 seats in the previous parliament.

Backers of the F-35 acquisition won 62, 4 more than in the previous parliament: Conservative Liberals VVD (41 seats), Christian Democrats CDA (13 seats), Reformed Christian Party SGP (3 seats), and Christian Union (2 seats).

A third bloc of parties that proposed continuing the F-35’s current SDD phase without committing to acquisition, or has a neutral position, took 14 seats, 4 more than in the previous parliament: Progressive Liberals D66 (Democrats, 12 seats), the newly-formed 50+ party (seniors, 2 seats).

The VVD is a very strong pro-JSF party with many ties within industry and defense, and its strong position in any future governing coalition probably means that the F-35 acquisition project for the Royal Netherlands Air Force is unavoidable after these elections.

Observers point out that, although the F-35 acquisition was not even mentioned during the election campaign and debates, 77% of Dutch voters opposed acquisition of the F-35, even including a small majority of voters supporting the pro-F-35 parties: 55% of

VVD voters, 51% of the SGP voters and 60% of CDA and CU voters.

The election results mean that a governing coalition must be formed to have a working majority, probably between the VVD-PvdA and D66/GL parties or, alternatively, between the VVD-PvdA-CDA.

In both cases, the key factor influencing the final outcome of the fighter acquisition plan will be the attitude of Labour (PvdA), and whether its newly-elected MPs are prepared to change their point of view as has often happened in the past.

In 2001, PvdA was against the JSF; but after the elections in 2002 they voted (conditionally) to participate in the System Development and Demonstration (SDD) Phase.

In 2006, PvdA was not in the government and opposed signing the MOU for the follow-on Production, Sustainment and Follow-On Development (PSFD) phase. However, after the November 2006 elections, PvdA formed a coalition government and, after long negotiations and controversies, agreed to buy the first LRIP3 and LRIP4 aircraft, and to participate in the subsequent Initial Operational. Testing and Evaluation (IOT&E) phase.

So, while Labour has a history of protesting against the F-35, it has often changed its mind when this was the price of its participating in government. This may well happen again.

In any case, the F-35 acquisition will be one of the key items to be settled during the coalition negotiations.

(JB with editing by GB)