Jet Incident Shows Syria's Defences Capable, Jumpy (excerpt)

June 25, 2012 defense-aerospace.com

 (Source: Reuters at Trust.org; published June 25, 2012)

LONDON --- While the exact circumstances remain far from clear, the shooting down of a Turkish warplane shows Syria's military to be capable, extremely jumpy and increasingly drawn into confrontation with its most powerful neighbour.

That could prove a major deterrent for Western powers in particular, who want President Bashar al-Assad gone but are unwilling to risk troops or aircraft in a military intervention. Equally, they are wary of triggering a wider regional war.

Turkey says its F4 Phantom reconnaissance jet was engaged in testing the domestic Turkish radar system when it entered Syrian airspace by mistake. But Ankara is adamant it was firmly back over international waters when it was attacked without warning. Syria says the aircraft was firmly within its airspace and approaching its coast low and fast.

Exactly what the jet's true mission was remains far from clear. While Turkey says it is not unusual for planes to drift across national boundaries when on missions or exercises, the dangers of straying into Syrian airspace at such a time of tension would have been very apparent.

Having complained repeatedly that Syria's escalating conflict was crossing its borders, with thousands of refugees fleeing and occasional cross-border Syrian artillery and small arms fire, Turkey is widely believed to be increasing its support for Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels on its soil.

The downed jet, some believe, may have been on a reconnaissance mission for the rebels or possibly trying to probe Syria's Russian-made radar and air defences. With Western and Arab powers increasingly actively trying to bring down Assad, some analysts say almost anything is possible.

"What all this tells us is that there are a lot of "fishy" tactics and strategies going on in the region, with numerous players behind many curtains," said Hayat Alvi, lecturer in Middle Eastern studies at the U.S. Naval War College.

"The Syrian military has reason to be jumpy, given these circumstances. Nonetheless, the idea that it would be in Turkey's and Syria's respective national interests to engage in military conflict with each other is not plausible. Both sides would have too much to lose, and very little to gain."

Friday's incident underlined the fact that should foreign powers hope to repeat the kind of military intervention that toppled Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, it would first require an overwhelming assault on Syria's air defences. (end of excerpt)


(EDITOR’S NOTE: According to some press reports, the aircraft had been recently upgraded by Israeli industry. If confirmed, these reports might also raise questions about the effectiveness of the upgrade.)


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