Taiwan's Ma looks for F-16 boost

2011-06-21 (China Military News cited from atimes.com and written by Jens Kastner)

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou and his Kuomintang (KMT) party faces a tough battle for re-election in January 2012. Beijing desperately wants him to win, and that Washington favors him over his challenger, opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen, isn't a secret either.

With the timely authorization of an upgrade of the Taiwan air force's F-16A/B fleet, the United States could provide Ma, who is domestically constantly criticized for letting the guard down against China, with some political ammunition for the home front. There are also reasons to believe Beijing would tone down its rhetoric against military support, and tolerance to some extent even has been indicated by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) itself.

Few observers doubt that next year's legislative and presidential elections on January 14 will be hotly contested. Countless recent opinion polls have been showing KMT's Ma on par with the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) Tsai.

This is immensely worrisome to Beijing. President Hu Jintao, scheduled to retire his party post in late 2012 and presidency in early 2013, wants to make a peaceful breakthrough on the Taiwan issue as his legacy, much like the return of Hong Kong in 1997 is something for which Deng Xiaoping will forever be remembered. And, it can safely be assumed that the polls have also been annoying Washington as memories of troubles the previous DPP administration under Chen Shui-bian brought to US-China relations have yet to fully fade away.

What at least makes Beijing bite its nails is weighty indicators that Taiwan's voters have already made up their minds. New developments that bombarded the island's TV screens during May and the first half of June failed to make public support tilt to either side.

While the imposition of the popular "luxury tax", aimed at making housing affordable to low-income earners, did not help Ma, neither could Tsai's side take much advantage from either a leaked World Health Organization (WHO) memo proving that WHO officials refer to Taiwan as a "province of China", or the biggest food safety scandal ever to hit the island, after the discovery of industrial plasticizer in beverages, jams and other products, which threatened the health of innumerable children.

For a decade, Taipei has been requesting F-16C/Ds from the US to upgrade its aging air force. Since taking office in 2008, Ma, despite his hallmark course of engagement with Beijing, has on numerous occasions called on the US to authorize the deal. A strong defense will give Taiwan leverage on the cross-strait negotiation table, he repeatedly says. But also domestically, a defense-related breakthrough during the remainder of his term would help Ma in numerous ways.

It would take the wind out of the DPP's nagging allegations that Ma's administration recklessly "sells out Taiwan", and that he lets the military wither. It would decisively counter the notion that after his re-election, Beijing can force him into something the majority of the Taiwanese clearly doesn't want, namely starting talks on unification.

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