12 mars 2013 Par Rédacteur en chef. PORTAIL DES SOUS-MARINS

La marine indienne peut louer à la Russie le 2è sous-marin nucléaire de la classe Schuka-B dont la construction n’a pas été terminée, a indiqué ce mardi une source du secteur militaro-industrielle russe.

« L’Inde souhaite que ce 2è sous-marin du projet 971 (classe Schuka-B) soit terminé. La coque épaisse est déjà prête et se trouve au chantier naval de l’Amur, » a expliqué une source.

Il a précisé que, au lieu d’acheter ce 2è sous-marin, l’Inde pourrait aussi le louer. En 2012, la marine indienne avait reçu le premier sous-marin le Nerpa, pour une location de 10 ans pour 930 millions $.

Dans le même temps, il a souligné que, pour terminer ce 2è sous-marin, il faut un accord intergouvernemental. « Les parties le négocient déjà, » a indiqué la source.

Les autorités indiennes n’ont fait aucun commentaire.

Référence : RIA Novosti (Russie)

11 mars 2013 Par Rédacteur en chef. PORTAIL DES SOUS-MARINS

La marine australienne envisage de doter ses sous-marins de la classe Collins de nouvelles technologies japonaises, ce qui permettrait de prolonger de 10 ans leur durée de vie opérationnelle.

Cela aurait aussi pour conséquence de retarder d’autant le besoin de construire de nouveaux sous-marins pour remplacer ceux de la classe Collins.

Le Japon a assoupli sa constitution interdisant l’exportation de matériels militaires. La marine australienne pourrait ainsi choisir les sous-marins de la classe Soryu — ou plus probablement certaines de leurs technologies — pour remplacer ses 6 sous-marins de la classe Collins.

La marine australienne étudie actuellement la possibilité d’équiper chaque sous-marins de la classe Collins d’un système de propulsion anaérobie ultra-moderne, depuis les moteurs diesel et électriques jusqu’à l’hélice.

Ces travaux pourraient être effectués en Australie ou au Japon, à l’occasion d’un grand carénage.

Des discutions ont commencé entre les 2 pays sur un accord de transfert de technologies, qui pourrait concerner les sous-marins.

Ce serait une grande première puisque Tokyo n’a jusqu’à présent jamais partagé de technologies militaires avec un pays autre que les Etats-Unis.

Le Japon doit encore prendre une décision sur l’exportation des sous-marins Soryu ou de leurs technologies vers l’Australie, mais des membres importants de la défense à Tokyo sont en sa faveur.

En mai dernier, le chef de la marine australienne, Ray Griggs, et d’autres responsables australiens ont visité un sous-marin de la classe Soryu au cours d’une visite au Japon. Ils en sont revenus très impressionnés.

Référence : The Australian

11/03/2013 by Victoria Knowles - Armed Forces International Reporter

Amid amplified tensions on the Korean peninsula, the United States and South Korea have begun a new cooperative military exercise on Monday.

According to South Korea’s largest news agency, Yonhap, South Korea’s unification ministry said North Korea did not answer their hotline with Seoul. The North refused two telephone communication attempts at 9AM and 4PM local time, the ministry said.

The military drills negotiated by the two allies are dubbed Key Resolve. This follows the joint Foal Eagle exercises that are due to take place over two months. According to the United States Forces Korea, over 3,000 US forces and 10,000 South Korean troops are participating in the 11-day Key Resolve.

Exercise Key Resolve

The military exercises follow the North Korean army’s decision to nullify the armistice agreement, which terminated the Korean War back in 1953.

Pyongyang followed through with its threat to declare the armistice invalid with the declaration, according to North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun. In earlier incidents of international tension, North Korea has threatened several times to nullify the armistice.

Previously, North Korea has also warned that it would execute strikes against South Korea and the United States.

Despite the threats, analysts say the country is a long way off having the necessary technology to have a nuclear warhead mounted on a missile and accurately aimed at a target.

US and South Korea

They add that North Korea is unlikely to pursue a direct military war with the US, instead preferring to increase friction through its growing military deterrent and threats.

While South Korea has notified Pyongyang that its drills are “defensive in nature,” North Korea has described the yearly training exercises as "an open declaration of a war."

On February 21, the United Nations Command informed the North Korean military of the Key Resolve dates, noting that the exercise is a yearly joint endevour and is unrelated to the Korean Peninsula’s current events.

The UN Security Council universally passed harsher sanctions against North Korea on Thursday, aiming at the country’s nuclear program, following successful nuclear and missile tests.

March 11, 2013 by Shiv Aroor - Livefist

11.03.2013 Romandie.com (ats)

Les troupes sud-coréennes et leur allié américain ont entamé lundi leurs manoeuvres militaires annuelles. Elles ont été vivement condamnées par la Corée du Nord qui a menacé Séoul et Washington de frappe nucléaire et suspendu sa ligne de communication en cas d'urgence.

La Corée du Sud et les Etats-Unis - qui comptent 28'500 soldats dans le sud de la péninsule - ont lancé leurs manoeuvres baptisées "Key Resolve". Celles-ci sont en partie virtuelles, mais elles mobilisent des milliers de soldats.

Ces manoeuvres interviennent après une semaine de très fortes tensions sur la péninsule: Pyongyang a menacé la semaine dernière de dénoncer dès ce lundi l'accord d'armistice mettant fin à la guerre de Corée en 1953.

Vote déclencheur

Aux sources de ce contexte explosif, le tir réussi en décembre d'une fusée considérée par Séoul et ses alliés comme un missile balistique, suivi d'un troisième essai nucléaire en février puis de nouvelles sanctions votées vendredi par le Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU.

Après le vote de l'ONU, le régime nord-coréen a fait savoir qu'il considérait désormais comme nuls et non avenus "tous les accords de non-agression entre le Nord et le Sud".

Téléphone rouge suspendu

Le ministère sud-coréen de l'Unification - chargé des relations entre les deux voisins - a annoncé lundi que le Nord semblait avoir mis en oeuvre une autre de ses menaces, la suspension du téléphone rouge entre Pyongyang et Séoul, lien de communication en cas d'urgence.

Cette ligne, installée en 1971, a été suspendue à cinq reprises par le Nord, la dernière fois en 2010. Les deux parties l'utilisent habituellement deux fois par jour, mais "le Nord n'a pas répondu ce matin", a indiqué une porte-parole du ministère.

Selon le ministère sud-coréen de la Défense, le Nord prépare pour cette semaine des manoeuvres interarmes. Les casernes situées sur les îles nord-coréennes proches de la frontière maritime - contestée par Pyongyang - ont placé leurs canons en position d'attaque, ont indiqué des responsables du ministère.

source photo Livefist

March 11, 2013 defense-aerospace.com

(Source: Indian Ministry of Defence; issued March 11, 2013)

VVIP Helicopter Scam

On the report of arrests of the Finmeccanica Chief, Mr. G Orsi, who was earlier Chief Executive of M/s Agusta Westland, and Mr. Bruno Spagnolini, Chief Executive of Agusta Westland Spa, in reference to financial malpractices pertaining to procurement of 12 VVIP / VIP helicopters for Indian Air Force (IAF), the Ministry of Defence immediately requested our Embassy in Rome on 13th February, 2013 to send factual report pertaining to arrests of the Finmeccanica Chief and Chief Executive of Agusta Westland Spa, nature of charges framed and other relevant details, which in turn, took up the matter with the Judge for the preliminary investigation in Busto Arsizio.

The Embassy on February 15, 2013 has forwarded the response of the Judge which states that “the investigations are at a preliminary stage during which, as per Article 329 of the Code of Penal Procedure, all information are covered by secrecy.”

It was also added in the response of the Judge that when the “Secrecy” obligations are over, his Office would be glad to examine a new request from India.

The matter has been referred to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to conduct an inquiry into the matter. The CBI, after a visit of its team to Italy and on further examination of the documents available, has registered a Preliminary Enquiry (PE) and further investigation is on.

Besides, a Joint Team of Ministry of Defence/ Ministry of External Affairs officials was sent to Italy to collect formal inputs and relevant documents as far as practicable from various stakeholders.

Based on the recommendation of the team, further necessary action has been initiated. A Show Cause Notice was also issued to the firm.

Based on the reply received from them, further notices have been sent to them for additional information and documents. (Emphasis added—Ed.)

This information was given by Defence Minister Shri AK Antony in a written reply to Shri A.T. Nana Patil and Shri Arjun Meghwal in Lok Sabha today.

Mar 11, 2013 ASDNews Source : Naval Air Systems Command

Retired Marine Corps KC-130R aircraft will live to fly another day as part of a foreign military sales (FMS) case between the U.S. Navy and Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force.

Six KC-130R excess defense articles, extra to the needs of the U.S. government, are on a journey to restoration and active-duty status with the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force, or JMSDF.

“This FMS sale supports a global strategic initiative for preserving the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region,” said Capt. Michelle Guidry, program manager, Tactical Airlift, Adversary and Support Aircraft program (PMA-207), which manages Navy and Marine Corps C-130s. “We look forward to a continued partnership with the JMSDF through the sustainment of their KC-130Rs.”

The JMSDF will receive KC-130Rs capable of roll-on, roll-off cargo compartment configurations to support the movement of troops, goods and services; humanitarian efforts; transport of senior leaders; and medical evacuation.

Currently, four aircraft have been recovered from section five of Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group, Tuscan, Ariz., also known as AMARG, and inducted into the depot at Hill Air Force Base, Ogden, Utah, for phased maintenance interval regeneration.

Using historical data from previous U.S. Navy depot maintenance, the PMA-207 FMS team determined what maintenance is required to ensure safety of flight is achieved.

The first aircraft inducted into Hill AFB depot, bureau number 160015, began regeneration in November 2012 and is expected to complete regeneration by fall of 2013.

“Depending on the condition of the aircraft when recovered from AMARG, maintainers are performing varying levels of structural modifications before completing JMSDF specified modifications,” said Ken Moritz, FMS deputy program manager, PMA-207. “The total regeneration, overhaul and upgrade of each aircraft is expected to take approximately 10-12 months.”

Structural modifications being performed on all six aircraft include the replacement of landing gear supports, cargo door supports, center wing rainbow fittings and corrosion repair. In addition to structural modifications, the Japanese will receive thirty overhauled T56-A-16 engines and digital cockpit upgrades to include a digital GPS.

“The Japanese Navy is assuming responsibility for the non-recurring engineering efforts required to incorporate a new digital GPS onto JMSDF aircraft,” Moritz said. “This effort creates cost avoidance for the U.S Navy/Marine Corps if the information gathered is utilized as an interim cockpit solution for current fleet GPS systems faced with obsolescence issues.”

Beginning this fall, with aircraft 160015, CAE, Inc. will provide 6-8 weeks of initial pilot training onsite at Davis Monthan AFB, as well as 10 weeks of classroom training for aircrew and maintainers at the CAE facility in Tampa, Fla.

“Training is the last step before aircraft delivery,” Moritz said. The U.S. Navy plans to deliver the first aircraft to Atsugi, Japan by March 2014 and the sixth aircraft one year later.

“We are on our way to delivering a tried and proven tactical transport platform to one of our key allies,” Guidry said. “C-130s are essential to our military forces, which is why we are happy we can provide the JMSDF with the essential aircraft they need to support their mission.”

HANOI, 6 mars - RIA Novosti

Moscou et Hanoï envisagent de signer en 2013 un accord réglementant l'entrée des navires militaires russes dans les ports vietnamiens, a déclaré mercredi le ministre russe des Affaires étrangères Sergueï Choïgou à l'issue d'un entretien avec son homologue vietnamien Phung Quang Thanh.

En visite à Hanoï, le chef du département militaire russe a qualifié d'extrêmement importante "l'entente sur (…) la signature au cours de cette année d'un accord mutuellement avantageux et relatif à l'entrée et à l'appui logistique des navires militaires russes dans les ports vietnamiens".

Jusqu'au milieu des années 2000, le port vietnamien de Kamran a hébergé un point d'appui logistique naval russe.

March 9, 2013 idrw.org SOURCE: DHNS

India and Myanmar will have their first ever bilateral naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal, signalling NayPyiTaw’s willingness to befriend New Delhi, in order to come out of the Chinese spell.

Two warships of the Myanmar Navy, a frigate and a corvette, will arrive at Visakhapatnam on Saturday and stay there for the next four-five days, during which they will interact with the Eastern Naval Command officials, sources told Deccan Herald.

Subsequently, the two Myanmar ships, along with two Indian warships, would undertake a coordinated patrol in an area close to the Coco islands, which is widely believed to be a Chinese listening post. Both Indian Navy and the Myanmar government have, however, denied that speculation.

Notwithstanding the controversies surrounding the Coco islands, the joint patrol will be carried out in that area because of its proximity to the maritime boundary between India and Myanmar. The patrol party will look for unauthorised fishermen, poachers, smugglers and insurgent groups.

The bilateral exercise comes close on the heels of Defence Minister A K Antony’s visit to Myanmar in January, the underlying purpose of which was to make further inroads into a country where the Chinese wields considerable influence.

Three Indian Service Chiefs have travelled to Myanmar in the last 18 months, reflecting upon India’s desire to strengthen the bilateral military ties. For close to a decade, Myanmar remained a preferred destination for Indian military chiefs and senior service officials, demonstrating its importance in India’s military strategy.

The Myanmar port of Sittwe is believed to be one of the components in China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, under which China is speculated to have plans to utilise Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka) and Sittwe ports to keep an eye on India. The access was given to China for its involvement in building these three ports.

The recent hand over of the management of the Gwadar port to a Chinese company has been described by Antony as a matter of serious concern to the Indian government. Gwadar is located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and about 400 km away from the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil supply route.

Mar. 7, 2013 - By WENDELL MINNICK  - Defense News

TAIPEI — Singapore Technologies Electronics (ST Electronics) has solved major problems with sensor-based perimeter security fencing.

ST Engineering has developed a cost-effective, fiber-optic, sensor-based perimeter security solution known as the AgilFence Perimeter Intrusion Detection System (PIDS), said Tang Kum Chuen, president, ST Electronics, Communications & Sensor Systems Group. It can secure borders, military facilities and high-asset commercial properties.

The Singapore security environment offers many comparisons to problems other countries face today.

“When it comes to border security, terrorism is seen as the main threat, though of course the authorities are keen to prevent illegal immigrants coming over,” said Ian Storey, fellow, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.

Post-9/11 Singapore hardened its security infrastructure following the discovery of a Jemaah Islamiyah cell, which had targeted Western interests, including U.S. military personnel, Storey said. In general, because of its close links to the West, and the large concentration of Western interests in the country, Singapore sees itself as an attractive target for international terrorist groups.

While optical fiber is widely used in fence intrusion detection systems, the AgilFence PIDS is unique as it uses a series of tiny mirror-like sensors known as fiber bragg grating (FBG). Each of these permits a specific wavelength of light to be reflected when white light is transmitted along the optical fiber cable. The reflection sequence is predetermined and no alarm will be triggered as long as this steady state is maintained.

In the past, FBG sensor cables were costly to produce and the complexity of managing data from a large array of sensors deterred many companies from applying this technology.

“ST Electronics has mastered the relevant technologies,” Tang said.

The result is an affordable option. Large areas such as military facilities and air and naval bases will “enjoy substantial cost savings as fewer cameras are needed when long-range PTZ cameras are used, thereby reducing hardware, civil work, infrastructure as well as maintenance costs,” Tang said. AgilFence PIDS requires no power for the cable in the field resulting in significant cost reduction.

Singapore is well known for asset protection, said a U.S. defense industry source based in Singapore. Singapore has not forgotten the efforts by Indonesia during the Indonesian-Malaysian crisis from 1962 to 1966, he said, when the Indonesian strongman, Sukarno, waged a covert war against creation of the state of Malaysia. Indonesian commandos infiltrated Singapore on sabotage missions that resulted in numerous bombings, including the famous MacDonald House bombing in 1965.

There have been recent concerns over terrorism, he said. In 2002, a Singapore citizen, Mas Selamat bin Kastari, a member of the Jemaah Islamiyah terrorist group, plotted to bomb the Changi Airport. He was arrested and later escaped to Malaysia in 2008, where he was captured and returned to Singapore in 2010.

Today, AgilFence protects Changi Airport along with nine other sites around Singapore. Alan Tan, vice president of Changi Airport Group’s Aviation Security, says that Changi Airport “always aims to find the best tools that will allow us to ensure the highest safety standards at Changi Airport.”

Changi Airport’s perimeter protection plan boasts a double-layered fence with anti-tunneling protection that surrounds the perimeter of the airport. This is now further enhanced with AgilFence and an optimal number of low-light pan–tilt–zoom cameras placed strategically along the fence, Tan said.

It is suited especially for users looking for an intrinsically safe system with cut immunity, Tang said. Neither a single nor multiple cable cuts will cripple the entire protection system. “It is resilient to defeat,” he said.

From here.

Mar. 10, 2013 by Galrahn - informationdissemination.net

What happens today, March 11, 2013, local time off the Korean Peninsula could become a historic event, so I want to make sure it is noted what happened. This was the threat as reported by BNO.

A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry Thursday issued the following statement:

The U.S. is now working hard to ignite a nuclear war to stifle the DPRK.

Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises kicked off by the U.S., putting the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the brink of war, are maneuvers for a nuclear war aimed to mount a preemptive strike on the DPRK from A to Z.

The U.S. is massively deploying armed forces for aggression, including nuclear carrier task force and strategic bombers, enough to fight a nuclear war under the smokescreen of "annual drills."

What should not be overlooked is that the war maneuvers are timed to coincide with the moves to fabricate a new "resolution" of the UN Security Council against the DPRK, pursuant to a war scenario of the U.S. to ignite a nuclear war under the pretext of "nuclear nonproliferation".

It is a trite war method of the U.S. to cook up "a resolution" at the UNSC to justify its war of aggression and then unleash it under the berets of "UN forces."

That is why the U.S. is hurling into the war maneuvers even armed forces of its satellite countries which participated in the past Korean War as "UN forces".

After directing the strategic pivot for world hegemony to the Asia-Pacific region, the U.S. regards it as its primary goal to put the whole of the Korean Peninsula under its control in a bid to secure a bridgehead for landing in the Eurasian continent. It also seeks a way out of a serious economic crisis at home in unleashing the second Korean war.

The U.S. is, indeed, the very criminal threatening global peace and security as it is staging dangerous war drills in this region, the biggest hotspot in the world and a nuclear arsenal where nuclear weapons and facilities are densely deployed.

The DPRK has so far made every possible effort while exercising maximum self-restraint in order to defend the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region.

The U.S. is, however, responding to the DPRK's good will and self-restraint with large-scale nuclear war maneuvers and the "annual" war drills are developing into a real war. Under this situation the opportunity of diplomatic solution has disappeared and there remains only military counteraction.

The spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry states as follows upon authorization as regards the grim situation that was created on the Korean Peninsula seriously threatening the sovereignty of the country and its right to existence:

First, now that the U.S. is set to light a fuse for a nuclear war, the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK will exercise the right to a preemptive nuclear attack to destroy the strongholds of the aggressors and to defend the supreme interests of the country.

The Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army declared that it would totally nullify the Korean Armistice Agreement (AA) from March 11 when the U.S. nuclear war rehearsal gets into full swing. This meant that from that moment the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK will take military actions for self-defence against any target any moment, not restrained by AA.

Second, the farce for the adoption of "resolution on sanctions" against the DPRK being backed by the U.S. at the UN Security Council will compel the DPRK to take at an earlier date more powerful second and third countermeasures as it had declared.

If the UN Security Council gives the green light to the U.S. in its moves for a war of aggression against the DPRK by adopting a new "resolution on sanctions", it will fully display the might of Songun it built up decades after decades and put an end to the evil cycle of tension.

Third, given that it has become difficult to avert the second Korean war, the DPRK strongly warns the UN Security Council not to make another big blunder like the one in the past when it earned inveterate grudge of the Korean nation by acting as a war servant for the U.S. in 1950.

The UNSC should immediately call into question the U.S. DPRK-targeted nuclear war rehearsals that pose a serious threat to the global peace and security, immediately disband the "UN Command" which is a tool for executing the U.S. war of aggression and take measures for ending the state of technical war.

Justice can be defended only when strength is reacted with strength and nuke with nuke.

Should the U.S. ignite a war in the end, it will cause flames of justice to flare up like an erupting volcano in which the aggressors will perish and the cursed Military Demarcation Line disappear for good. -0-

Most of this is the typical North Korean noise machine turning up the volume, but the DRPK making the Armistice Agreement invalid effective March 11 (later today) stands out as the most dangerous provocation. It is also not the first time North Korea has claimed the Armistice is over, indeed this is the 6th time they have claimed it.

 The Armistice Agreement is the cease-fire, without it there is no cease-fire and the rules of engagement is different.

The recent nuclear threat by North Korea got all the media attention, but this statement was released before the UN vote. That suggests there has been an ongoing planned effort by North Korea, indeed every move is calculated. What bothers me the most is that all events and responses are extremely predictable. North Korean observers say everything needs to stay predictable on our side to insure escalation control. What happens when they are no longer being predictable and change the rules? We take it hard, and apparently we have accepted that risk.

For an interesting take on the unfolding intelligence situation, check out this Nightwatch report from the other night. I was particularly interested in some of the local propaganda. Nightwatch is hit and miss for me, but I still read it quite often and I have always found they are one of the better sources on the internet when discussing North Korean activity. Treat their analysis like you would any open source intelligence though.

My sense is North Korea is looking for a small skirmish, some kind of clash that raises tension on the security situation, but only a limited battle not a full war. After 2010 it is unclear if they can maintain escalation control though, which may explain why they are message traffic heavy to the locals. The key here is that North Korea wants to change the dynamics of the security situation for the purposes of negotiation, because apparently they have calculated the security situation is too comfortable for everyone else for security to be used in negotiation as a concession. If that is truly the case, then if a skirmish or something breaks out North Korea would need to get hit harder than they hit the South in order to keep the security situation from being a concession in negotiation, but that isn't easy to do unless we feel you have control over escalation and deescalation of the situation.

All of this is good timing for North Korea though. The Navy has 4 destroyers in the area, but no available aircraft carriers anywhere in the Pacific and the nearest is a few weeks away. USS George Washington (CVN 73) is in a 6 month availability window that began in February. The Navy is probably saying otherwise, but if something happens they are not in a very good position to react quickly - not even close. O&M budget shortages due to sequestration and the continuing resolution probably make it difficult for the DoD to react based solely on rhetoric, although the DoD has other, more legitimate means of evaluating the legitimacy of threats from North Korea. Could be hard to tell though, all reports from South Korea have claimed that this week the North was going to conduct the largest military exercise in recent memory, and that was before all the threats happened. Maybe it isn't the exercise we think it is?

Beyond military positioning the timing is pretty good on the political level too, because if in fact something happens on the Korean Peninsula this would be the first actual crisis for John Kerry and Chuck Hagel. I can't say I feel very comfortable about that.


I do wonder, does South Korea change the Rules of Engagement to reflect the North Korean statement the Armistice is invalidated? Can they afford not to given the political implications of being caught unprepared like in 2010? Can we afford not to? This gets really hard when you step through it, particularly when everyone believes the North isn't looking for a major war.

I do not believe North Korea is looking for a major war, but I do think the North is looking for an incident. From their point of view, they have honored every legal requirement regarding any direct attack against any target beginning March 11, 2013 is not some random act of violence. That is what really bothers me, basically North Korea has positioned their nation to be legally at war on purpose, but the specific purpose is yet to be revealed. 

March 10, 2013: Strategy Page

North Korea has put many combat units on alert and mobile ballistic missiles have been seen being moved to firing positions. This is apparently yet another response to the new sanctions and China becoming openly hostile to the North Korean leadership. These latest moves are apparently in preparation for the end of scheduled South Korea-U.S. military training activities (on April 30 th ) that North Korea has always protested as “provocative” and this year has declared as a cause for a war. This annual training exercise began March 1 st . These joint exercises have been going on for decades, but North Korea insists they are rehearsals for an invasion of North Korea. South Korea has said it would not just retaliate if North Korea fired on them again (as has happened many times before, especially since 2010). This time South Korea says it will hit back a lot harder.

While outsiders are perplexed as the sudden increase in outrageous threats from North Korea, people inside the country are not. In the last few years life has gotten a lot worse. Starvation deaths, suicides, crime and divorces (official and otherwise) are way up. The North Korean leadership has less and less to work with. Their armed forces has been falling apart for two decades and little else works up there.

The North Korean leadership continues to be split between those who want to follow the Chinese path and allow economic freedom while continuing to run a dictatorship and those who oppose economic freedom for the masses because it might make them powerful enough to overthrow their tyrants. It appears that all this is part of a generational dispute over how to maintain the wealth and power of the few thousand families that control the country. No one is talking democracy here, just basic survival. There is much to be done, because the economy is a mess and the police state is losing its ability to control the population. Last year the government distributed, to thousands of senior officials, details of new economic reforms. Although not as extensive as China is advising, the new reforms would give entrepreneurial managers more power to compete and do better. This includes more economic freedom for farmers. Alas, the new rules also provide more opportunity for corrupt officials to steal and have not been implemented. The hardliners remain in control and continue to demand more repression and dependence on fear rather than prosperity (as the Chinese communist have successfully done.

While China has officially joined the many nations backing sanctions against North Korea, it has not cut off trade (China is North Korea’s largest, by far, trading partner) or aid. China is the only source of petroleum for North Korea and a major source of much-needed food imports. Even more crucial is Chinese connivance with North Korean smugglers. This allows North Korea to get its illegal exports (weapons, drugs counterfeit currency) out of the country and smuggled items (weapons components and industrial equipment as well as luxuries for the leadership) in. China has long been pressured to crack down on this illegal trade. That pressure has increased since China finally agreed to back sanctions (at least the most recent bunch). Chinese diplomats listen to these pleas, but have so far not agreed to apply its own sanctions, that would really put the hurt on North Korea. Inside China, public opinion, despite decades of pro-North Korea propaganda, has turned against North Korea. More ominously (for North Korea) censors and state controlled media are not hiding this anger. When the Chinese want to make a big policy change, they usually make a big show of popular support for the shift. This has made many Chinese businesses along the North Korean border visibly nervous. Trading (legally or otherwise) with North Korea has been very profitable for most Chinese businesses involved. The North Koreans will occasionally try to scam or steal from their Chinese suppliers and investors, but the North Korean government only tolerates such bad behavior to a limited extent. Most actions that would drive away Chinese traders and suppliers are severely punished in North Korea. Those prohibitions have weakened over the last few years and Chinese suppliers have had to be more strict (as in all or part of the money must be up front in cash). The North Koreans complain, but they go along. There is no other source for much of what China supplies. But even on the border, Chinese were upset at the February 12 nuclear test (which could be felt, as an earthquake in some parts of northeast China) and fear worse is to come.

March 9, 2013: North Korea responded to the new UN sanctions by saying this was not the way to deal with the disagreements over the North Korean nuclear weapons effort and that there would be more tests. What North Korea wants is more aid (food, oil and cash) from the West without any strings attached. North Korea had little to say about the changes in Chinese attitudes towards them. Apparently Chinese diplomats and other officials are telling their North Korean counterparts that relations between the two countries can only get worse as long as the North Korean nuclear weapons exist.

March 8, 2013: In response to yesterday’s sanctions North Korea cancelled the nonaggression agreements with South Korea and said it has missiles equipped with nuclear warheads aimed at South Korea and the United States. This is very unlikely as there is no indication that the northerners have overcome the technical problems involved in making a nuclear weapon that is small enough, and robust enough to operate in a missile warhead. They might have speeded up this warhead engineering effort with warhead secrets illegally bought from Russian missile experts. But that has only been rumored and investigations have not turned up any proof. In any event, working warheads would not yet threaten the United States because of American anti-missile systems in between North Korea and North America. Moreover, North Korea has not yet successfully tested an ballistic missile that could reach the United States. South Korea, and American troops there would, however be at risk from existing North Korean missiles. North Korea also said it would strike first with its nukes if it wanted to.

March 7, 2013: With Chinese support (a first) the UN passed another round of sanctions on North Korea. This time cash transfers were forbidden as were a number of specific luxury goods. Most other imports to North Korea are already forbidden and the new restrictions go after the importing of many luxury items. These are used to reward supporters of the Kim dictatorship. This is the fifth UN sanction resolution since 2006 against the North Korean nuclear weapons program.

March 6, 2013:  South Korea said it would fight back with all its strength if North Korea went cancelled the 1953 ceasefire and attacked again.

March 5, 2013:  North Korea threatened to cancel the 1953 ceasefire agreement that ended the Korean War (1950-3) fighting but not the war itself, which is still, technically, underway. This North Korean threat was apparently an effort to stop China from supporting a new round of UN sanctions. China had refused to back earlier sanctions.

March 1, 2013: A retired American basketball player and the Harlem Globetrotters (a comedy act composed to talented basketball players) visited North Korea and the four day event was given much coverage on North Korean TV. Leader Kim Jong Um (a known fan of American basketball) was shown cavorting with the American basketball players. This perplexed many North Koreans, because most of the players had tattoos and North Koreans are taught that tattoos are only worn by criminals and that nothing good comes out of America. 

The North Korea secret police announced an amnesty for those who have left the country without permission and now live in South Korea. Those returning under this open-ended amnesty would not be punished. Any returnees (and there have been a handful) are great propaganda items.

NEW YORK, 8 mars - RIA Novosti

La Corée du Nord a déclaré vendredi avoir unilatéralement rompu ses accords de non-agression avec la Corée du sud et coupé la ligne téléphonique directe entre les deux pays, a annoncé l'Agence télégraphique centrale de la Corée du Nord (KCNA).

"Au moment où les autorités fantoches sud-coréennes conspirent avec les Etats-Unis (…) dans l'intention de nous agresser, les accords de non-agression entre le Nord et le Sud perdent tout leur sens", lit-on dans un communiqué du Comité pour la réunification pacifique de la Corée.

La Corée du Nord juge "caduque" sa déclaration conjointe avec Séoul sur la dénucléarisation de la péninsule coréenne.

Pyongyang a également fait savoir qu'il coupait le "téléphone rouge" mis en place entre le Nord et le Sud en 1971.

La Corée du Nord a entrepris ces démarches en réponse à la décision du Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU de décréter de nouvelles sanctions contre Pyongyang. Ces sanctions ont pour but de réprimer les activités illégales de diplomates nord-coréens, en permettant notamment d'inspecter les valises diplomatiques pour empêcher le transport de sommes importantes en espèces destinées à financer le programme nucléaire et balistique de Pyongyang.