Fox, like his counterpart in the US, has expressed dissatisfaction with institutionalised
inefficiencies within the established defence structure [image: US DoD]
06/14/2011
Contributor: Robert Densmore
According to Defence Secretary Liam Fox, the United Kingdom is no longer safe. In a speech delivered to defence industry juggernauts from around the globe, Dr Fox outlined in extraordinary detail
the imminent cyber threat that his department, and the country at large, faces day in and day out. For over a quarter of an hour, the minister spoke in grave tones of the daily cyber attacks –
having doubled since 2009 - waged against the MoD and against Britain’s intellectual and industrial capital. His words of warning, delivered at the London Chamber of Commerce’s defence
dinner at the Imperial War Museum, extended beyond international threats, however.
Reading between the lines
The onus, he pronounced, was the very real and threatening budget deficit facing the Coalition government, which will reach in excess of £1.3 trillion in 2014. This is the real threat, a legacy
of Labour that, he declared, has put the UK in a state of ‘national economic emergency’. The solution? Make the economy strong, and national security will follow. Yet, by going on the back foot,
the MoD front office has embarked on a dangerous policy course that looks more like a defensive posture than a tangible growth strategy.
Perhaps most worthy of mention were those notables not (or barely) mentioned in the Dr’s speech. At the top of that list is Libya. Early honeymoon optimism has been steadily crumbling and NATO
partnerships are showing strain under an imbalanced force commitment. Fox’s vocal counterpart, outgoing US defence secretary Bob Gates, revealed last week that he is worried that the American
military remains the single largest contributor to Nato’s Operation Unified Protector. Since the end of March, US air forces have conducted around 2,600 sorties, an unwelcome expenditure in light
of US budget deficit woes. In typical Gates frankness, he openly lauded Canada, Denmark and Norway while castigating European countries for limited or non-existent participation. Pundits will
read as much from what was unsaid as what was said – is Gates dissatisfied with British efforts?
He would certainly have right to be. While the MoD press office was busy churning out daily press releases on RAF endeavours in Operation Ellamy, the Guardian was reporting how Norway and Denmark
were putting hundreds more bombs on target than UK air forces. Increased pressure from Britain’s First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope, has finally led to the delayed but welcomed deployment
of HMS Ocean with her Apache attack helicopter force. Sadly, this seems to have somehow re-ignited Anglo-French enmity, a situation made more glaringly obvious by the US’ firm resolve to avoid
any leadership role in the conflict. Sources within the US Embassy’s Defense Attache Office in London confirm that Libya is not, and never will be, a US foreign policy priority. Rather, they
said, it is an out-and-out fight for ‘primacy’ within Europe.
The spectre of ground ops in Africa . . . and the Afghan legacy
An objective view of Britain’s entering into the Libyan conflict will reveal that, despite Cameron’s early enthusiasm, the prime minister believes that pursuing a second war on another continent
is only tenable if it is done without boots on the ground. For most Americans, the justification for limiting the quota of boots on the ground has always been Vietnam. There are simply too many
touchstones of wasteful expenditure (of lives and defence dollars) from this era to allow an American president to commit in Libya beyond a support role. Without a doubt, Afghanistan has been a
turning point for UK defence policy. Memories of the Falklands War, now two conflicts old, are fading fast. The Gulf Wars were too quick to count and Iraq was always just a quirky Bush phenomenon
(with a Blair exponent to be factored in).
In contrast, Afghanistan has hit the hearts and minds of the British public. Help for Heroes, the landmark charity dedicated to helping injured Iraq and Afghanistan veterans, has emerged as a
British touchstone of Afghanistan, having raised a record £100m in three short years. Over past months, the televised repatriation parades through Wootton Bassett took over as the dominant image
of the conflict, and discourse in Westminster during the same period turned vocally bitter over equipment shortages. Suddenly, it seems very clear that Afghanistan, while earning a pitifully
lonely mention in Dr Fox’s speech, is a very real and menacing bogeyman in this minister’s closet. And for good reason: the budget shortfall in defence has proven to be far more serious than
anyone previously imagined.
In an interview in March of this year, Peter Luff promised me that Afghanistan remained priority number one. (Though as I write this, the list of cuts to Afghan operations continues to rise.)
Over and above defence review cuts, more armoured vehicle improvements have been scrapped and the pledged purchase of Chinook helicopters has been pushed so far to the right that, by the time
they enter service, British troops won’t even be in Afghanistan anymore. All of these facts line up to produce an overwhelmingly desperate queue of policy shortcomings – but these are things not
borne of oversight or malpractice. They are not mistakes. Indeed, they are worse. They read like a catalogue of debts that the bank has finally refused to pay off – because that is precisely what
they are.
'Show me the money'
As Dr Fox looked out over us - his audience - his hands shifted from page to page to mark his progress, like ticking boxes on a grocery list. Then there was a weighty pause over this statement:
‘we have taken over a troubled business, with the Treasury as our main investor’. That pause continues to speak volumes. Providing equipment to British forces in Afghanistan may be a priority for
the Dr and his staff, but it is clear that No. 10 is pushing hard for something else – a balanced budget at any cost. I have never spoken to a single British commander who would, through their
words, undermine public support for the chain of command – and that includes No. 10. Yet, for the discerning ear tuned to receive it, there are clear chords of discontent over the way in which
business is being conducted in Downing Street.
Indeed, things have never been easy between Downing Street and the MoD Main Building at Whitehall. Only last month, another ‘leaked’ letter found its way into the prime minister’s hands from Dr
Fox’s office – the second such in only a year. It is unclear whether these leaks, one of which criticised the current round of defence cuts, were deliberate or were some conspicuous act of
sabotage (as Fox claims). Whether or not paranoia prevails in the MoD is a moot issue. The fact remains that austerity measures have not gone down smoothly with the secretary of state, and
figures like foreign secretary William Hague have increased that cultural divide by standing firm over the Treasury’s contributions (or lack of) to defence.
Unfortunately, Treasury scepticism is not entirely unfounded. A succession of clangers have been dropped into the discussion on MoD spending: most notably by the National Audit Office in their
report on armoured vehicle capability. While the report points the finger at both sides of the House in its far reaching look into past development spending and resulting waste from cancellations
(millions spent on cancelled projects that will never make it to the factory floor, much less the front lines), it flies in the faces of those within Fox’s office who are keen to prove that
Tories are in control of defence investment. Moreover, it casts a shadow over Peter Luff’s claim that British troops in Afghanistan are abundantly well-equipped. This tops the list, but an
inventory of faux pas has been consistently rearing its head in the national press. One such story spoke of the £1.3m the MoD paid out to Afghan families over the wrongful death of loved
ones in the hotly contested Helmand region. Another story highlighted the £150K the MoD had to spend to buy back a book manuscript it had originally approved, but on which it reversed its
decision. The book, again highlighting operations in Helmand, was deemed too sensitive for release – albeit, late in the game.
In fairness, both of these unsettling quandaries can likely trace their origins to the previous Labour management, but the fact that both seemingly caught the Dr unawares draws a line under the
kind of odds he is facing in the MoD. His countless criticisms of ingrained institutional inefficiencies in the MoD seem to be falling on slightly deaf ears. Which is why, perhaps, he presented a
crafted, clear and portentous speech at last week’s dinner. It needed to be clear, it needed to establish the facts and it needed to describe the next big threat of the future.
This is cyber warfare - and this is real
No one in that room on that night would have been surprised to hear Dr Fox ping on ‘cyber’ as that threat. Perhaps we all have been desensitised to the magnitude of the thing. If we’ve done our
homework, we may know that when the US talks about meeting the cyber threat, they talk in a language that translates into billions of dollars (3.2 billion on security and a total of 38.4 billion
on IT). This, of course, represents only fiscal year 2012 and does not include the multiple service and inter-service cyber commands that focus on offensive cyber warfare. What we may not be
aware of is that the UK has set aside what amounts to a quarter of this funding to meet the same threat – and this will be spread across GCHQ, governmental agencies and the police. It’s difficult
to get an exact handle on how many US institutions are targeted by cyber attack, but recent attacks have sent US-based industry reeling. Sony, Lockheed Martin and EMC Corp have all borne the
brunt of cyber infiltration, theft and, to some extent, sabotage in just the past few weeks. Even more disturbing is the surfacing of what appears to be a state sponsored hacking of the IMF
database, which is based in Washington DC. In spite of the DoD’s budget crackdown efforts, cyber is one of the few domains slated for a rise.
So too, it appears, is it the case in the UK, where £650m will be put toward beefing up cyber security. A senior representative of Atos Origin, the firm spearheading development and operation of
the IT infrastructure at London 2012, revealed to me that cyber attacks at the games are expected to outpace those seen at Beijing – and be primarily state-sponsored attacks, to boot. The stakes
are indeed high and though Fox’s speech resonated with what my fellow dinner guests know to be true, I could sense an element of doubt – even discouragement, because what came next was a polite,
but firm, ‘dropping of the Bergen’. It is clear that the MoD will not – in fact, cannot – shoulder the total burden of national cyber security. The cost will obviously be too great. What the
representatives from Atos Origin know – indeed what every security and defence firm in attendance would learn – is that this ‘new partnership’ between industry and the MoD means somebody else
needs to begin footing the bill.
Perhaps the less than exuberant level of post-speech conversation reflected an element of industry’s ‘coming to terms’ with the MoD’s stark budget realities. There were no calls for meeting UORs
(urgent operational requirements) this time; no promises of renewed investment; no new major technology initiatives. Instead, we all quietly ate our desserts beneath the gloomy and
hard-hitting reality that the MoD, finally, ultimately, is broke. It’s a bleak picture.
But, perhaps it is some consolation that, as the MoD worker bees fumble and flail to catch up with the times, the queen bee seems to have a firm handle on the incomings and out-goings. The good
times have definitely come to an end – and big business is now at the pointy end of a fuzzy but deadly foreign cyber war. If anyone who reads this thinks I’m exaggerating, I would suggest a quick
read of the Pentagon’s new policy on cyber attack – which, for the first time in history, promises ‘bombs on an enemy target’ for each cyber attack to cross US borders. How the times have
changed. While many listening to Dr Fox’s speech might have felt it anti-climactic, the concern he expressed was more real than many would give him credit for.
So is he on the back foot? It seems self evident. He and the Tory leadership are engrossed with the deficit burden Labour has left them – and it emerges at every corner as the surrogate answer
(or excuse) for nearly every defence challenge that comes round the corner. Yet, leaked letters or no, he is a man clearly at odds with this same leadership. He is a man who understands that
defence spending can often translate into lives saved, whether in Afghanistan or Libya, or even in cyber space. Unfortunately, for as long as it takes to pay the deficit, or even just the
interest which is running at £43bn per annum, he will also know that these are not the first priority for Cameron’s government.
This leaves him in an increasingly precarious situation. While petitioning for defence solutions from the private sector is a strategy close to the hearts of Tory leaders, it leaves little room
to manoeuvre if there is no budget to facilitate these solutions. Those in the UK who would cite US budget cuts for comparison should also know that, last year, US defence spending represented
4.8% of GDP, whereas UK spending ranked at 2.7%. The numbers suggest that the US has some margin of safety – some buffer that would allow growth alongside budget cuts. This is simply not the case
in the UK, especially when overall GDP here is a fraction of what it is in the states.
If we are to understand Liam Fox when he talks about risk and investment, we must comprehend and appreciate the road he has travelled. The increased funding for cyber security, while small, is a
victory of sorts. It is a statement to those in government that the threat is serious, that it is capable and that it is immediate. It by no means aims to match the threat. But when you are tied
to a front office that is more concerned with balancing the books than bolstering defences, the back foot approach is perhaps one of the few options left.