October 18, 2012: Strategy Page
Palestinian terrorists have developed a remotely controlled multiple rocket launcher. This is yet another attempt to kill Israelis, and Israel says it won’t work. Islamic terrorists in Gaza have
been firing rockets at Israel for over a decade and have little to show for it. Last year Israel began using an anti-missile system (Iron Dome) that made Palestinian rocket attacks even less
effective. The Palestinian multiple rocket launcher is nothing new as the modern version was developed in the 1930s. Building one that can be transported in the back of a truck is not new either.
Hezbollah up in Lebanon has been using such improvised multiple rocket launchers on trucks. But using cell phones to launch the rockets is a recent innovation and it’s all about firing more
rockets into Israel without getting killed by the Israelis before you can launch. Even then, success is not assured.
That’s because last year Israel proved that its new Iron Dome anti-rocket system worked. Early in 2011 they deployed two Iron Dome batteries near the Gaza border. One was near the town of Beer
Sheva (the largest town in the Negev desert) and another near the coastal city Ashdod (the largest city within range of 122mm rockets fired from Gaza). On April 7th, a 122mm rocket was
intercepted near Ashkelon, which is south of Ashdod. This deployment was prompted by an increase in rockets fired from Gaza, and the growing use of longer range (20 kilometers) 122mm rockets.
Iron Dome proved that it could work under combat conditions, preventing the longer range, factory made, rockets from landing in populated areas.
This is a big turnaround for this system. Nearly two years ago the Israeli military revealed that its new Iron Dome anti-rocket system was not meant for defending towns and villages, but military
bases. For years, politicians touted Iron Dome as a means of defending civilians living close to the Gaza border in the south and Lebanon in the north. But it turns out that it takes about 15
seconds for Iron Dome to detect, identify and fire its missiles. Most of the civilian targets currently under fire from Gaza are so close to the border (within 13 kilometers) that the rockets are
fired and land in less than 15 seconds. This means that the town of Sderot, the closest Israeli urban area to Gaza, cannot be helped by Iron Dome.
This explains why, after Iron Dome was declared ready for action, it was surprisingly placed in storage two years ago. The air force said they would prefer to save money and put the Iron Dome
batteries in storage, to be deployed only for regular tests (and for training) and for an actual emergency (an expected large scale attack on southern or northern Israel.) Politicians demanded
that at least one battery be deployed along the Gaza border. But the military sees Hamas and Hezbollah stockpiling larger numbers of longer range rockets. This would enable large numbers of
rockets to be fired at military bases. The generals believe it's more important to protect the military forces, who ultimately defend Israel, and that's what Iron Dome was designed for. Since the
military bases are far from the borders, longer range rockets, with longer (than 15 seconds) flight times, would be used. Iron Dome would knock down many of these rockets, as it has already done
in tests.
The terrorists in Gaza continue to use shorter range rockets that Iron Dome can’t handle. There aren’t many targets for these rockets on the Israeli side of the border, but killing an Israeli,
even a civilian (the most likely victim) is counted as a big victory. There haven’t been too many of those victories for the Palestinians. Thus there is a threat of Palestinians using multiple
rocket launchers, loaded with short range rockets, to attack places like Sderot.
The only known weapon that can stop the short range rockets is the American Centurion, a U.S. Navy Phalanx autocannon designed to knock down anti-ship missiles. Centurion has been successful in
shooting down mortar shells and short range rockets in Iraq and Afghanistan, but Israel has not bought any yet. However, Israel has evaluated Centurion and, if the Palestinian short range rockets
become a problem, some Centurion systems could be bought or leased.
Israel has bought seven batteries of Iron Dome, with delivery to be completed next year. Each battery has radar and control equipment, and four missile launchers. Each battery costs about $37
million, which includes over fifty missiles.
During tests, the Iron Dome detected and shot down BM-21 (122mm) and Kassam (home-made) rockets. Iron Dome uses two radars to quickly calculate the trajectory of the incoming rocket (Palestinian
Kassams from Gaza, or Russian and Iranian designs favored by Hezbollah in Lebanon) and do nothing if the rocket trajectory indicates it is going to land in an uninhabited area. But if the
computers predict a rocket coming down in an inhabited area, a $40,000 guided missile is fired to intercept the rocket. This makes the system cost-effective. That's because Hezbollah fired 4,000
rockets in 2006, and Palestinian terrorists in Gaza have fired over six thousand Kassam rockets in the past nine years, and the Israelis know where each of them landed. Over 90 percent of these
rockets landed in uninhabited areas, and few of those that did inflicted few casualties. Still, a thousand interceptor missiles would cost $40 million. But that would save large quantities of
military equipment and avoid many dead and injured troops. Israel already has a radar system in place that gives some warning of approaching rockets. Iron Dome will use that system, in addition
to another, more specialized radar in southern Israel.
The rocket attacks had been around since 2001, but got much worse once Israel pulled out of Gaza in August of 2005. This was a peace gesture that backfired. From 2001 to 2005, about 700 rockets
were fired from Gaza into Israel. Since the 2005 withdrawal, over 3,400 more rockets were fired into Israel. The rate of firings increased after Hamas took control of Gaza in June, 2007.
Hamas has been bringing in more factory made Iranian and Chinese made BM-21 and BM-12 rockets. Israeli intelligence officials believe Hamas currently has, in Gaza, some factory-made BM-21
rockets, each with a range of 20-40 kilometers. They also have some shorter range (six kilometers), Russian designed B-12 rockets. These are not smuggled in much, because the locally made Kassam
II has about the same range. However, the B-12 is more reliable (more reliable trajectory and fuze, so more are likely to land where aimed and explode.)
The B-12 is a 107mm, 19 kg (42 pound), 107mm, 84 cm (33 inch) long rocket that is very popular with terrorists. This rocket has a range of about six kilometers and 1.35 kg (three pounds) of
explosives in its warhead. Normally fired, from a launcher, in salvoes of dozens at a time, when used individually, it is more accurate the closer it is to the target. This 107mm design has been
copied by many nations, and is very popular with guerillas and terrorists because of its small size and portability. There is a Chinese BM-12 variant which has a smaller warhead and larger rocket
motor. This version is supposed to have a range of about 12 kilometers.
The 122mm BM-21s weigh 68.2 kg (150 pounds) and are 2.9 meters (nine feet) long. These have 20.5 kg (45 pound) warheads, but not much better accuracy than the 107mm model. However, these larger
rockets have a maximum range of 20 kilometers. Again, because they are unguided, they are only effective if fired in salvos, or at large targets (like cities, or large military bases or
industrial complexes.) There are Egyptian and Chinese variants that have smaller warheads and larger rocket motors, giving them a range of about 40 kilometers.
The rocket attacks from Gaza have been remarkably ineffective, killing only 42 people (half from rockets, the rest by mortars) in nine years. Hamas has had to fire about 270 rockets or mortar
shells for each Israel soldier or civilian they have killed. Israeli counterfire killed or wounded a Palestinian for every three Palestinian rockets or mortar shells fired. One Israeli was killed
or wounded for every 40 rockets or mortar shells fired. Israeli fire was much more accurate, with most of the Palestinian casualties being terrorists or others involved in building or firing the
rockets and mortars. Hamas has tried to get civilians killed, by storing rockets in residential areas, and firing them from those neighborhoods as well. Although Hamas believes in the concept of
"involuntary martyrdom" (getting civilians killed for the cause, even if the victims are not willing), many of its chosen candidates are not eager to die. So civilians stay away from areas where
the rockets are launched, and try to conceal the fact that rockets are hidden under their homes.
Meanwhile, up north in Lebanon, Hezbollah have stockpiled over 40,000 factory-made rockets, mainly BM-21s brought in from Iran via Syria. This is three times as many rockets as they had in the
Summer of 2006, when over 4,000 rockets were fired into northern Israel, killing about fifty people, most of them civilians. Over a thousand Lebanese died from Israeli counterattacks. Hezbollah
and Hamas plan to launch a joint rocket attack on Israel eventually. The Israelis have been planning more effective countermeasures, which they have not been discussing openly. There is also the
option of installing Iron Dome in the north, but that has not been assured yet.
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