source armedforces-int.com

22/07/11 By Arie Egozi SOURCE:Flight International

Israel's "David's Sling" air defence system is scheduled to undergo its first intercept tests in early 2012, with the design capable of intercepting air threats including cruise missiles.

Yosi Druker, director of Rafael's air-to-air and air defence directorate, said tests already conducted using the "Stunner" interceptor developed for the system have been successful.

Rafael is developing the David's Sling weapon system to protect populated areas in Israel against attack by medium-range rockets.

"We expect to gain operational status in early 2013," Druker said.

Once in use, David's Sling will form part of a multi-layered defence system that Israel is building to defend itself.

Rafael's Iron Dome system has already been used to intercept short-range rockets, while Israel's top-end equipment is the Israel Aerospace Industries-developed Arrow 2 and future Arrow 3 ballistic missile interceptors.

The ability of David's Sling to also intercept cruise missiles is being introduced as "threats are changing", Israeli sources said.

source defense.gouv.fr

20/07/2011 Michel Cabirol – La Tribune

Les Emirats arabes unis pourraient renoncer à une version du Rafale remotorisée de façon plus puissante, selon le ministre de la Défense, Gérard Longuet. Une hypothèse évoquée à la suite des retours d'expérience du Rafale lors du conflit libyen.

C’est une petite bombe qu’a lâché le ministre de la Défense, Gérard Longuet. Les Emirats arabes unis (EAU) pourraient renoncer à demander une motorisation plus puissante de l'avion de combat Rafale. « Aujourd'hui on leur montre que la motorisation (standard actuel de l'avion, ndlr) est pertinente », a déclaré le ministre devant des journalistes, en allusion au déploiement et des performances des avions de combat français, en pointe dans l'intervention militaire en cours en Libye et en Afghanistan (six appareils en service opérationnel). Ce qui serait un coup dur pour les bureaux d’études de Safran.

Car Abu Dhabi réclamait jusqu'alors une version améliorée de l'appareil, qui serait notamment dotée d'un moteur fabriqué par Snecma (Safran) plus puissant, d'une poussée de 9 tonnes, et un radar, fourni par Thales, plus performant. Mais le financement de ces améliorations faisait toujours l’objet d’âpres négociation entre la France et les EAU.

« Nous sommes dans des négociations avancées mais qui durent », a également confirmé é Gérard Longuet, évoquant un pays qui a à la fois « des besoins et des moyens » budgétaires, à la différence d'autres acheteurs potentiels comme le Brésil. La France et les Emirats négocient depuis 2008 la vente de 60 exemplaires du Rafale, l’avion de combat fabriqué par Dassault Aviation, jamais vendu à l'étranger.

Il a par ailleurs précisé que la France était en discussion avec deux autres pays, l’Inde où le Rafale a été présélectionné avec l’Eurofighter (BAE Systems, EADS et Finmeccanica) pour un appel d’offre de 126 avions de combat (7,4 milliards d’euros), et le Brésil (36 avions). En revanche, il a indiqué qu’il n’y a « pas de négociation avec le Qatar ».

21 juillet 2011 par NANOJV JOINT VENTURES CONSTRUCTOR

L’iran affirme avoir abattu un avion sans pilote américain au dessus d’un site nucléaire. Précisément au dessus du site souterrain de Fordo à côté de la ville sainte de Qom.

Curieusement l’Iran, expert en guerre de l’information,  n’a pas mis en ligne d’images de l’appareil abattu. Selon « Wired » il pourrait s’agir d’un modèle sophistiqué de drone furtif. Ce trophée iranien, si tant est qu’il en subsiste des débris, serait donc une première historique.

La suite de l’article

Otokar's Cobra APC supports a large array of mission-specific

modifications and has become a huge export success for Turkey.

Jul 20 2011 TRDEFENCE SpaceWar

Turkish exports of armored vehicles are expanding, including purchases by the United States for the first time.

A senior Turkish military procurement official involved with supporting Turkish arms exports, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Hurriyet that Turkish armored vehicle manufacturers are expanding beyond their traditional Middle Eastern markets.

“We are happy to see these companies now chasing deals in parts of the Far East they have not yet sold their products to, and there are initial signs of penetration into difficult markets like the U.S.,” he said “All of that is very encouraging.”

Turkey’s Defense Industry Manufacturers Association Secretary-General Kaya Yazgan told Hurriyet, “The making of armored vehicles is one of the strongest sectors in our defense industry.”

Istanbul’s Otokar, which is owned by Turkey’s top business conglomerate Koc Holding, produces seven armored vehicle variants and its 2010 sales to civilian and military clients topped $313 million.

In May Otokar displayed Turkey’s first indigenously built tank, the Altay, at the IDEF’11 international defense industry fair in Istanbul.

Head of Turkey’s Undersecretariat for Defense Industry Murad Bayar said Altay tanks would be entirely built in Turkey, with Turkish defense industry company Aselsan. It will build the Altay’s electronic systems, providing Identification Friend-or-Foe systems.

Otokar officials say that Altay tanks will be ready for sale by 2016.

Otokar exports products to the armed forces of nearly 20 countries.

Last December Otokar said that it had received its first order from a foreign military for its ARMA new armored combat vehicle, which comes as either a 6×6 or 8×8 wheeled armored vehicle.

The company added that the ARMA, a modular multi-wheel configuration wheeled armored vehicle, would be exported before making its debut in the Turkish military. The amphibian vehicle weighs 20 tons fully loaded for combat and has a crew consisting of a driver, a commander and eight personnel. ARMA is transportable by various means including C130 aircraft.

Otokar also builds the Cobra, a 4×4 vehicle, which comes in 10 models designed for different missions. Otokar has sold Cobras to more than 10 other countries and the vehicle has been utilized in a variety of both NATO and U.N. missions.

“There is increasing demand for the Cobra from an increasing number of countries,” Otokar said in a news release.

In 2009 Turkey’s total arms exports amounted to $832 million. Other leading Turkish arms manufacturing companies include Hiscar Automotive Industries, Ankara’s FNSS, which is 51 percent owned by Turkish business group Nurol and Izmir’s BMC, which is owned by the Cukurova Holding industrial conglomerate.

photo Armée de l'Air

20/07/2011 AEROCONTACT

Les Emirats arabes unis (EAU) constituent aujourd'hui la meilleure chance pour la France de conclure à court terme un contrat d'exportation d'avions Rafale, a estimé mercredi le ministre de la Défense, Gérard Longuet.

Dassault Aviation n'a pas réussi jusqu'ici à placer à l'étranger cet appareil polyvalent réputé l'un des plus performants du monde mais aussi l'un des plus chers, qui équipe l'armée de l'air et les forces aéronavales françaises.

"C'est un matériel qui a fait ses preuves", a déclaré Gérard Longuet lors d'une rencontre avec des journalistes.

"Mais les pays ont des problèmes budgétaires - c'est le cas du Brésil. Ils peuvent avoir des problèmes politiques - c'est le cas de l'Inde", a-t-il ajouté. "Il reste les Emiratis, avec lesquels les négociations sont avancées."

Selon le ministre de la Défense, les EAU n'exigeraient plus aujourd'hui des réacteurs plus puissants, ce qui constituait jusqu'à récemment une des conditions posées par les Emiratis pour acheter l'avion français.

Gérard Longuet y voit notamment le fruit de l'intervention de Rafale dans les frappes aériennes opérées depuis mars contre les forces de Mouammar Kadhafi en Libye.

"Le caractère opérationnel et polyvalent du Rafale est affirmé chaque jour par ces interventions", a-t-il dit. "Le théâtre libyen apporte la démonstration que la motorisation actuelle est parfaitement pertinente."

Les EAU discutent depuis 2008 avec Dassault de l'achat de 60 Rafale pour un montant d'environ 10 milliards de dollars, pour remplacer leur flotte de Mirage 2000 achetés en 1983.

DÉCISION BRÉSILIENNE REPORTÉE À 2012

Au Brésil, où Gérard Longuet se trouvait à la fin de la semaine dernière, la priorité du gouvernement brésilien est la marine et les sous-marins et il est hautement improbable qu'une décision sur l'achat d'avions de combat intervienne en 2011, a précisé le ministre français de la Défense.

"Le Rafale n'est pas exclu mais c'est la décision qui n'est pas pour l'instant au coeur des préoccupations de la présidente Dilma Rousseff", a-t-il dit.

Le président Nicolas Sarkozy avait cru pouvoir annoncer, lors d'une visite au Brésil, que son homologue brésilien de l'époque, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, avait décidé de doter l'armée de l'air brésilienne de Rafale.

Mais Lula a cédé la place à Dilma Rousseff début 2011 sans que cette annonce reçoive un début de concrétisation.

Le ministre brésilien de la Défense, Nelson Jobim, a déclaré le 9 juillet que le Brésil ne réexaminerait pas avant début 2012 son appel d'offres en vue de l'achat d'avions de combat, pour lequel le Rafale est en concurrence avec le F-18 américain de Boeing et le Grippen suédois de Saab.

"La principale nécessité pour nous, ce sont les transferts de technologies", a néanmoins dit Nelson Jobim. Transferts que la France a promis d'accorder "sans limite" au Brésil.

Depuis son arrivée au pouvoir en janvier, Dilma Rousseff travaille cependant à rapprocher le Brésil des Etats-Unis.

L'Inde a pour sa part présélectionné fin avril le Rafale et le Typhoon du consortium européen Eurofighter pour un contrat de 126 avions de combat.

Gérard Longuet se dit confiant dans la préférence de l'état major indien pour le Rafale et un choix technique plutôt que politique. "Donc c'est plutôt de bon augure", estime le ministre, qui voit là aussi un effet Libye.

19 Jul 2011 By KATE BRANNEN DefenseNews

Freshman U.S. Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., is opposing the latest proposed sale of M1 Abrams tanks to Egypt, a deal with an estimated cost of $1.3 billion.

On July 1, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notified Congress of the potential sale.

If it goes through, the sale would include 125 M1A1 Abrams tank kits for co-production and associated weapons, equipment, parts, training and logistical support, according to the DSCA notice.

In a July 18 letter, West, a member of the House Armed Services Committee and the Tea Party Caucus, said he opposes any military sales to Egypt as long as the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist party, "remains active in the political process" there.

West sent the letter to Rep. Buck McKeon, R-Fla., the House Armed Services Committee chairman. Copies of the letter also were provided to House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and other House leaders.

Last month, the U.S. said it would resume direct contact with the Muslim Brotherhood, which has become an influential political force in Egypt since former President Hosni Mubarak was forced out of office earlier this year.

"We believe, given the changing political landscape in Egypt, that it is in the interests of the United States to engage with all parties that are peaceful and committed to nonviolence that intend to compete for the parliament and the presidency," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said June 30 on a trip to Budapest.

Since Mubarak's departure, the Egyptian military has formed an interim government, which recognized the Brotherhood's political party in June. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for this fall, and a presidential election could take place by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, West says the proposed tank sale to Egypt could "seriously jeopardize" Israel's security.

"We must exercise caution with regards to military sales and support to the Egyptian Government until a government is formed absent of the radical elements of the Muslim Brotherhood that will maintain active peace with Israel," West writes.

Founded in 1928, the Brotherhood has never been classified a terrorist organization by the U.S. While the group renounces violence, it has verbally supported Hamas, which has carried out attacks against Israel.

According to the Congressional Research Service, the U.S.-Egyptian co-production of the M1A1 Abrams tank, which began in 1988, is "one of the cornerstones of U.S. military assistance to Egypt."

Egypt plans to acquire a total of 1,200 tanks. Some of the tank's components are manufactured at an Egyptian facility, while the remaining parts are produced in the U.S. and then shipped to Egypt for final assembly. The prime contractor is General Dynamics, located in Michigan.

"The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region," the DSCA notice says.

By law, the government is required to notify Congress of any foreign military sale over a certain value. Depending on the country and the sale, Congress has between 15 and 30 days to block the sale by a joint resolution of disapproval.

To date, no sale has ever been blocked by this method, although Congress came very close during the 1980s with an arms sale to Saudi Arabia.

Congress can also pass legislation to stop or modify sales at any time up to the point of delivery.

Jul 18, 2011 By Suadad al-Salhy/Reuters AviationWeek.com

BAGHDAD - Iraq wants the United States to supply several thousand trainers for its military but is unlikely to ask Washington to extend its troop presence beyond a year-end deadline, Iraqi security and political sources say.

The difference between troops and trainers, usually former soldiers and police contracted to the U.S. government, may be critical for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki as he deals with squabbling politicians and tries to appease constituents who want the Americans out.

With less than six months to go on the 2008 security pact between the two countries, Maliki is having a hard time unifying his shaky cross-sectarian coalition government on whether Iraq needs to keep some U.S. troops more than eight years after the invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.

Americans expect President Barack Obama to wind up the unpopular war in Iraq as he grapples with debt talks and a fragile economic recovery while the election campaign heats up.

Any decision to extend U.S. troops is risky in Iraq. The political bloc of anti-U.S. Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr openly opposes a continued U.S. presence and Sadr has threatened to escalate protests and military resistance if troops stay.

To avoid angering allies and fuelling sectarian tension, Maliki, who is also acting defense and interior minister, may opt to bypass parliament and have his ministries sign agreements with Washington for 2,000-3,000 U.S. trainers, sources said.

“If the political blocs refused to announce their final decision on the U.S. withdrawal … Maliki would go it alone and sign memorandums of understanding with the American side,” said a senior lawmaker in Maliki’s State of Law party.

“In that case, he would not need to get the political blocs or the parliament to approve,” the lawmaker said.

The lawmaker, who is close to Maliki, said the 3,000 U.S. trainers would need security, technical and logistic support which could raise the contractors’ total to around 5,000.

Baghdad and Washington already have basic agreements for ongoing training of Iraqi forces, but are now discussing specifics rather than talking about an extension of U.S. troop presence in the country, Iraqi sources said.

Admiral Mike Mullen, the U.S. military chief, said this month any agreement to keep troops in Iraq would also have to address Iran’s support for extremist Shi’ite militias in Iraq.

PARLIAMENTARY BYPASS?

In a recent interview with state-owned Iraqiya television, Maliki appeared to signal he favored the trainer strategy when he said it would be difficult to secure a majority in parliament for a troop extension, but that a training contingent would not need lawmakers’ approval.

“We have received and bought American weapons, tanks, planes, and will buy fighter jets, and we have warships. It is necessary that we have trainers (for the equipment),” he said.

“That’s why we have decided in the National Security Council that we need a keep a number of American trainers.”

The trainers would not be active-duty military personnel but rather contractors with military or security backgrounds. They would not conduct combat operations, political sources said.

Among Shi’ite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs, some agree behind closed doors on the need for a continued U.S. presence but will not make such a view public, fearing a voter backlash.

Baghdad is supposed to deliver its decision this month.

U.S. forces, now about 46,000, took up an advisory role after officially ending combat operations last August, but Iraqi and U.S. officials are concerned over the readiness of Iraqi troops to deal with a stubborn insurgency and possible foreign aggression.

U.S. officials have said they are willing to consid

Deux pilotes israéliens discutent avec un pilote américain des capacités du V-22.

Photo : Armée de l'Air Israélienne

17.07.2011 Tal Michael - blogtsahal.wordpress.com

L’équipe de test israélienne de l’avion V-22 est retournée en Israël après deux semaines de vols et de formations. En plus des nombreuses heures de vol accumulées, les membres de l’équipage ont pu tirer d’importantes conclusions : « L’avion va changer les règles du jeu et pourra réaliser des actions dont nous n’aurions jamais rêvé. » 

Un équipage composé d’anciens membres d’escadons d’hélicoptères et d’autres militaires israéliens est revenu en Israël, après un mois de vols et de formations visant à tester le nouvel avion militaire V-22 dans toutes les situations possibles. Le Boeing-Bell V-22 Osprey est un appareil de transport hybride de conception américaine ; il s’agit d’un avion de transport militaire présentant des caractéristiques propres aux hélicoptères dans les phases d’atterrissage et de décollage. « Notre objectif était de tester l’adéquation de l’avion aux besoins de l’Armée de l’Air« , a expliqué le Lieutenant-colonel Nimrod, de la Division de l’Armement  de l’Armée de l’Air Israélienne. Après deux semaines au cours desquelles les pilotes ont appris le fonctionnement de l’avion de manière approfondie dans une base du corps des Marines américains en Caroline du Nord, ils ont pris leur premier envol de façon totalement autonome. « Nous avons essayé de tester l’avion dans des situations difficiles : de nuit, haute altitude et dans des conditions de mauvaise visibilité. Sans l’ombre d’un doute, cet avion est précurseur dans de nombreux domaines. »

L’avion V-22 permet de décoller et d’atterrir à la façon d’un hélicoptère et de voler en haute altitude et à une vitesse élevée à la façon d’un avion, et il est certainement précurseur de par sa technologie moderne. « L’avion vole à une vitesse deux fois supérieure à la vitesse moyenne d’un hélicoptère, et il offre confort et sécurité en vol », a expliqué le Lieutenant-colonel Nimrod.

V-22 vu de l'intérieur

 

Au cours des tests de l’avion, les membres du Quartier Général du corps aérien ont examiné des opérations passées qui se sont déroulées au-delà des lignes ennemies et ont tenté d’imaginer l’influence qu’aurait pu avoir le V-22 s’il avait participé à ces opérations. « Il aurait changé les règles du jeu et créé un changement considérable. Nous serions rentrés dans des zones auxquelles nous ne pensions pas pouvoir accéder. Ceci dit, il y a de nombreux domaines qui n’auraient pas été affectés du tout », a dit le Lieutenant-colonel Nimrod. Bien que l’avion ne soit pas furtif, il est considéré par les spécialistes comme un avion capable « d’échapper aux menaces habituelles lorsqu’il vole en haute altitude et à vitesse élevée. Si, dans le pire des cas, l’avion est touché, il peut continuer à fonctionner normalement grâce à ses nombreux systèmes de secours. »

 

Le noyau des futurs pilotes de l’avion sera constitué de pilotes d’hélicoptères de formation

Bien que l’avion soit hybride et remplisse les fonctions de deux appareils différents, le Lieutenant-colonel Nimrod ne croit pas qu’il remplacera l’un d’eux. « Cet avion est un aéronef d’un genre nouveau qui permet de surmonter les difficultés à l’atterrissage rencontrées par l’avion et le manque de vitesse de l’hélicoptère. L’exécution de missions dans des endroits éloignés nous oblige à pousser les outils dont nous disposons à la limite de leurs capacités ». Il s’avère que l’intégration de la nouvelle technologie par l’Armée de l’Air, s’il est décidé d’acquérir l’avion, se fera sans trop de difficultés. « L’entretien de l’avion ressemble beaucoup à celui de l’hélicoptère Sikorsky CH-53 Stallion et n’est pas censée présenter de problème. Même la formation des techniciens sera similaire », a expliqué le Lieutenant-colonel Nimrod. « Comme dans les escadrons opérationnels de l’Armée Américaine, le noyau des futurs pilotes de l’avion sera constitué de pilotes d’hélicoptères, complété par des pilotes de transport. Les missions comprendront de nombreuses activités au sol à proximité des Forces Terrestres. Avec lesquelles les pilotes d’hélicoptère ont l’habitude de coopérer plus que quiconque. »

 

L'équipe israélienne sort du V-22

July 16, 2011: STRATEGY PAGE

Saudi Arabia is buying 244 Leopard 2A7+ tanks from Germany. Saudi Arabia is believed to have already ordered 44, and now has increased that order. It was only a year ago that German tank manufacturer KMW has revealed this, the latest version of its Leopard 2.

Two years ago, the German Army announced that it was going to upgrade 150 of its Leopard 2A6 tanks to the A7 standard. That would include more armor on the sides and rear (especially to protect against RPGs), more external cameras (so the crew inside could see anything in any direction, day or night), a remote control machine-gun station on top of the turret, better fire control and combat control computers and displays, more powerful auxiliary power unit and better air conditioning, and numerous other minor improvements. This would increase the weight of the tank to nearly 70 tons.

The Leopard 2A7+ has added improvements to mobility (engine, track laying system, wheels and related gear), better soundproofing for the crew, more, and better, thermal sights, and more effective ammunition for the 120mm gun (fragmentation shells that detonate above or behind a target). Non-lethal ammo has also been developed for the Leopard 2A7+. KMW also plans to begin work on Leopard 3 this decade.

Until last year, the 55 ton Leopard 2A6 was the current version, and is a contemporary of the American M-1. The 2A6 model has a stabilizer (for firing on the move) and a thermal imager (for seeing through night, mist and sand storms.) Germany has been selling less capable refurbed 2A4s since the 1990s (after the Cold War ended and the German army was much reduced in size.) This enabled many nations to inexpensively upgrade their aging armored forces. In the last decade, many nations have upgraded their Leopards to the A6 standard. Many nations prefer to continue upgrading their Leopards, mainly because there are no new tanks to buy. Thus the appeal of an upgrade to the Leopard 2A7+ standard.

Saudi Arabia is concerned about Iran, which has a force of 1,500 much older tanks (most of them Russian T-72s and T-54/55s). Saudi Arabia has 1,300 tanks, most of them older American M-60s and French AMX-30s. But the Saudis also have 370 U.S. M-1s and 150 Russian T-90s. The 244 Leopards will increase the Saudi edge. The Saudis also have the money to buy spare parts for their modern tanks, and Western instructors to provide the best training. But the Iranians are better soldiers, so they might have an edge there.

July 13, 2011 Arms Control Association (ACA) - defpro.com

In light of justifiable concerns about Iran’s potential as a nuclear weapons state, the country’s latest military exercise, ending last week, provided some grounds for qualified relief. Although the official commentary was predictably defiant in tone, the overall choreography and the weapons actually fired bespoke neither the intent nor a current operational capability for Iran to strike at Israel or Europe. The absence in the exercise of systems likely to serve as nuclear weapons delivery vehicles belies contentions that Tehran is moving rapidly to achieve such a capability.

“GREAT PROPHET 6” FIREWORKS

In a ten-day extravaganza of martial events, dubbed “Great Prophet 6,” Iran conducted a prodigious number of missile launches, showcasing a variety of ballistic and cruise missiles, including some new missile types and a newly displayed silo basing mode. The live-fire exercises provided useful training for the troops and stimulated national pride among the population. Such displays of missile prowess also help Iran’s clerical government rally domestic support behind efforts to defy UN sanctions and send a warning message to potential aggressors.

MISSILES ARE THE MEASURE

Missiles are the premier weapon of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran’s ballistic missiles, in particular, occupy an iconic place in the power pantheon – they are fast to employ, hard for an enemy to locate and attack prior to launch, difficult to intercept in flight, and can potentially serve as a vehicle for delivering nuclear weapons to targets far from the country’s border. Iran already has medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) in its arsenal, which can reach targets not only in neighboring states, but also in Israel. Moreover, given the heavy concentrations of U.S. troops in the region, even Iran’s shorter-range missiles can easily and quickly put the lives of U.S. soldiers at risk.

Anti-shipping cruise missiles – along with mines – provide one of Iran’s most credible deterrent threats, because they enable Tehran to effectively exploit its geographical position by threatening to interrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a third of all the world's seaborne traded oil. Such a disruption, even short-term, would have incalculable effects on the international economy.

Iranian missile forces loom large in relative significance because of inadequacies in Iran’s air and ground forces. These forces “are sufficient to deter or defend against conventional threats from Iran’s weaker neighbors…but lack the air power and logistical ability to project power much beyond Iran’s borders or to confront regional powers such as Turkey or Israel,” according to a recent official U.S. assessment. [1] U.S. domination of the seas and skies in any military confrontation drives Iran into a disproportionate reliance on threatening to use missiles to level the odds. Even so, the practical utility of Iranian missiles is primarily limited at present to being an instrument of intimidation or terror when targeted against cities, given that Iran’s ballistic missiles lack accuracy against point targets and Iran’s cruise missiles are not suited to land-attack.

By acquiring nuclear warheads for its medium-range ballistic missiles, Iran could gain the ability to destroy specific targets. The deployments of missile defenses in Israel and the Persian Gulf are unlikely to give the defenders confidence that nuclear devastation would be averted in the event of an actual Iranian nuclear missile attack. Moreover, missile defenses are likely to spur rather than retard Iranian efforts to improve their missiles. Fortunately, Tehran would also be aware that its use of nuclear weapons would provoke retaliation that could result in its annihilation as a nation – a risk disproportionate to any conceivable gain.

WHAT DID THE EXERCISE ACTUALLY DEMONSTRATE?

The majority of missiles launched over the course of the exercise were either short-range, battlefield weapons, such as the solid fuel Fateh 110 or cruise missiles, such as the Tondar and Khalije Fars that were claimed to be effective against ships and fixed targets in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Of some two dozen missiles fired, only one was a medium-range missile with sufficient power and available space to carry a future nuclear warhead, the liquid fuel Shahab 3, a derivative of North Korea’s No Dong MRBM. Yet the Shahab 3’s range of approximately 1,000 km (with a 750 kg warhead) is not sufficient for it to reach Israel from a secure position in Iran. Iran has developed an advanced version of the Shahab 3, the Ghadr 1, to extend the system's range. This was accomplished by lengthening the airframe, using high-strength aluminum, and changing the shape of the missile’s warhead section. Yet the Ghadr 1 did not appear in the recent exercises.

The Iranian media also displayed, for the first time, underground missile silos, allegedly loaded with liquid fuel Shahabs. However, outside experts doubt the accuracy of the descriptions provided in the video coverage of the exercise and question whether Iran has any MRBMs operationally deployed in silos. In any case, such missiles would be far more likely to survive attack in a mobile basing mode than in fixed silos, which can be located in advance and effectively destroyed with little warning by the precision weapons available to the United States.

Iranian television reported further that Iranian forces had been equipped with a new, long-range radar system, the Ghadir, which was featured in the exercises.

WHAT WAS THE INTENDED MESSAGE?

Based on the statements of Iranian military leaders and reports in Iran’s media, the main messages of “Great Prophet 6” for friends and foe were: that Iran’s strength is increasing in spite of the UN sanctions; that Iran is not dependent on other nations for its defense; that Iranian missiles could not be effectively preempted or intercepted; and that any attack on Iran would be met with devastating retaliation.

The new radar and missile silos were offered as evidence than Iran cannot be disarmed and that retaliation was inevitable. The salvo launches of missiles were a reminder that missile defenses can be overwhelmed by numbers. The longer-range Shahab 3 symbolized Iran’s reach across the Middle East region, far beyond its own borders. Each of the systems displayed were described as the product of Iranian scientists and engineers, independent of reliance on foreign purchases or technical assistance.

READING BETWEEN THE LINES

There are, however, other conclusions to be drawn from Iran’s flexing of missile muscles. For those seeking to prevent or dissuade Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, the most important question is how much progress the exercises demonstrate toward Iran developing and deploying the missiles, which would carry nuclear warheads.

Realistically, medium-term delivery boils down to two existing systems: the liquid fuel, single stage Ghadr 1 MRBM, an advanced derivative of the Shahab 3, and the solid fuel Sejjil 2 MRBM, a two-stage system with sufficient range to target Israel from launch sites throughout Iran, but not yet operational. Neither missile was flown during “Great Prophet 6.”

The only MRBM launched was announced to be a Shahab 3, an unlikely candidate for fulfilling Iran’s likely nuclear delivery capability aspirations. It is possible that the Iranians foresee using the Ghadr 1 as a nuclear weapons platform, in spite of the disadvantages inherent to liquid fuel mobile missiles – in terms of their limited mobility and greater vulnerability to attack.

It is more likely that the Iranians see the Sejjil 2 as the preferred carrier for a possible future nuclear warhead. Iran is apparently feeling no need to exercise its only operational missile suited for the nuclear mission and the missile best suited for the nuclear mission has not yet reached an operational status appropriate for exercising. Thus, if the U.S. Government is correct in assessing that Tehran has not yet made a decision to build nuclear weapons, there would appear to be time for dissuading it from doing so.

A LONG-RANGE MISSILE THREAT NOT YET IN SIGHT

In a 1999 National Intelligence Estimate, the U.S. intelligence community projected that Iran could test an ICBM within “a few years.” Most analysts predicted back then either “even odds” or a “likely chance” that Iran would test an ICBM by 2010. However, in 2009, senior military and defense officials testified to Congress that shifting from deployment of strategic interceptors to Europe in a third site to a program for deploying theater interceptors in a “Phased Adaptive Approach” was appropriate since the Iranian ICBM threat was evolving more slowly than previously thought.

The Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis reported to Congress in 2011 that Iran was fielding increased numbers of SRBMs and MRBMs, “continuing to work on producing more capable MRBMs, and developing space launch vehicles, which incorporate technology directly applicable to longer-range missile systems.” [2] The still unofficial Report on Sanctions of the UN Panel of Experts completed in May 2011 revealed that the Iranians had conducted two unannounced tests of the Sejjil 2 MRBM (in October 2010 and February 2011) [3] in addition to the five flight tests it had conducted since 2007. (A senior Iranian Republican Guard Corps Commander recently confirmed two previously unannounced “1,900 km-range” missile flights tests in February.)

The Iranians launched their second satellite in May 2011, using the Safir Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) and predicted that it would be followed by another satellite launch in the summer. Unlike the larger Samorgh SLV that had been displayed as a mockup in February, conversion of the Safir SLV to a ballistic missile would still only deliver a nuclear-sized payload about 2,100 km, according to the IISS Strategic Dossier, [4] roughly the same as the Sejjil 2 MRBM.

This summer’s “Great Prophet 6” exercise provides more evidence that, while Tehran makes steady progress on augmenting its stocks of enriched uranium and while R&D work continues on its most likely MRBM candidate for being able to deliver a future nuclear weapon within the region, Tehran’s present military focus is on demonstrating and enhancing its conventional capability to deter and defeat a preventive attack on the Islamic Republic itself. It has not flight-tested, or indeed even asserted a need for, an IRBM or ICBM – the missile categories most relevant to threatening the territories of NATO Europe and the United States.

_____

Notes:

1. Unclassified Report on Military Power of Iran (Congressionally Directed Action), April 2010, p.7

2. Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, Covering 1 January to 31 December 2010, p.3

3. Panel of Experts Established Pursuant to Resolution 1929 (2010), Final Report, p.26, http://www.innercitypress.com/1929r051711.pdf

4. The International Institute for Strategic Studies: “Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment,” May 2010, p.31

12/07/11 By Arie Egozi SOURCE:Flight International

Aeronautics Defense Systems expects there to be a large potential market for its Aerostar-C unmanned air vehicle, including that from customers looking to acquire equipment to support training activities.

Company president Avi Leumi said on 12 July that market interest will come because the Aerostar-C "gives 80% of the performance of similar systems for 50% of the price. It will also be purchased by the many private schools that train unmanned air system operators for the growing market."

The Israeli defence company expects to secure certification for the Aerostar-C by the end of this year, with the system now undergoing flight testing.

The Aerostar-C has a maximum take-off weight of 320kg (705lb), including an 80kg payload. It has a 10m (33ft) wingspan and an operational endurance of up to 20h, Leumi said.

Its four-stroke, fuel injected engine produces up to 65hp (48kW), and is manufactured by Aeronautics' Italian subsidiary Zanzottera Technologies.

July 8, 2011 The Brunei Times

TURKEY is among the countries bidding to supply land-based combat vehicles to Brunei, as a "fully mechanised battalion" has been envisioned by the Defence White Paper 2011 for the Royal Brunei Land Force's (RBLF) capabilities for domestic and international humanitarian efforts.

The Defence White Paper (DWP) said that the land force's capacity was "limited due to the extended operational life of its major combat assets".

"To improve its flexibility across the spectrum of conflict, including options for contributing to peace and stability operations, and the ability to protect national assets and infrastructure, the land force is to be progressively hardened and its ability to deliver precision firepower upgraded," the 45-page document launched on Wednesday said.

Given the Royal Brunei Armed Forces' resolve to increase its commitment to peacekeeping missions like in Mindanao and Lebanon, the army was looking for solutions that will further protect its soldiers deployed in these increasingly "complex and dangerous environments".

"Introducing an upgraded armoured personnel carrier capability at company level with the ability to protect personnel against the range of threats, including improvised explosive devices, currently being experienced in peace operations will enhance the nation's ability to contribute to those collective tasks."

"It will also provide the nucleus for developing the skills and doctrine for the planned mechanisation of one of the battalions."

More "potent" short-to-medium range direct firepower at unit and squadron levels were also planned for the RBLF.

"To support system commonality, variants of the mobility armoured personnel carrier will be considered to replace the existing light tank," the DWP said.

Industry observers said the RBLF was looking at a mechanised battalion by as early as 2014.

Turkish weapons manufacturer FNSS Savunma Sistemieri AS is among the companies interested in securing a procurement deal with the Brunei military. FNSS International Sales Manager Melih Kayaalp told The Brunei Times yesterday at the company's BRIDEX 2011 booth that they were offering an amphibious light carrier, the Armoured Combat Vehicle (ACV).

The "basic version" of the tank was five wheeled and weighed in at 13 to 15 tonnes, while a larger stretch version can weigh as much as 18 tonnes, still allowing the vehicle to float and "swim" across the surface of bodies of water. The ACV, which has been procured by countries such as Malaysia and the Philippines, has also been used in humanitarian missions in Bosnia and Turkey.

"At some point, I remember in Turkey there was some kind of flooding and our army also used it to rescue the people because it can swim (and) it can go (through) difficult terrain," Kayaalp said.

The ACV has also been demonstrated "on trials" in Brunei, the FNSS sales manager said, adding that the tank was suitable for the climate in the region as "the Malaysians are (also) using it, similar climate, no problem".

Another FNSS product is the Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAV), which incorporate fold-out platforms that can ferry a 150-metre bridge. FNSS has designed and developed 52 of these AAVs for the Turkish army.

MOSCOU, 12 juillet - RIA Novosti

L'Irak négocie l'achat de chasseurs et de systèmes de défense antiaérienne américains pour un montant total de plusieurs milliards de dollars, rapporte mardi le journal Wall Street Journal citant de hauts responsables américains et irakiens.

Selon les sources du quotidien, Bagdad pourrait acheter jusqu'à 36 chasseurs américains. La somme exacte du contrat n'est pas divulguée pour le moment. Selon le journal, il s'agit de deux escadrilles de chasseurs, ainsi que d'équipements au sol, de radars et d'autres éléments de la défense aérienne.

Il y a quelque temps, l'Irak a gelé son programme d'acquisition de 18 chasseurs F-16, pour se concentrer sur le maintien de la stabilité intérieure compte tenu des mouvements de contestation qu'ont connu plusieurs pays arabes depuis le début de l'année.

Comme l'indique le Wall Street Journal, les livraisons d'armes américaines à Bagdad visent à contrebalancer la montée de l'influence iranienne dans la région après le retrait des troupes US d'Irak.

Les 46.000 militaires américains déployés actuellement en Irak doivent quitter le pays avant le 31 décembre 2011.