Kenya Gets Help From Mystery Western Air Force

24.10.2011 by Galrahn - .informationdissemination.net

The invasion of Somalia by the military forces of Kenya does involve western help, and no matter what the reporting to date has suggested - I am fairly confident the US was not surprised this action took place. No one wants to describe what kind of help Kenya is getting from foreign powers, nor who exactly is providing the help, but US officials have been quick to highlight what our help is not.

A Kenyan military spokesman, Maj. Emmanuel Chirchir, said that “one of the partners,” possibly the United States or France, had been behind airstrikes in the past few days, killing a number of Shabab militants. The French Navy has also shelled rebel positions from the sea, the Kenyan military said in a statement.

Two senior American officials in Washington said Sunday that neither the United States military nor the Central Intelligence Agency had carried out airstrikes in Somalia in recent days. One of the officials, who follows American military operations closely, said the Kenyan offensive had forced many Shabab fighters and commanders to disperse, making them easier potential targets, but emphasized that there had been “no U.S. military strikes in Somalia at all recently.”

All we really know for sure based on the very limited reporting of military activities is that the Kenyan ground and air forces have been operating at a level of effectiveness that exceeds their organic capabilities. The New York Times knows this as well, and mentions it in the latest reporting on ongoing events.

Kenya’s military — especially compared with those of its neighbors, like Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan and Somalia — has scant experience. Several military efforts over the past 20 years by other external powers, from the United States to the United Nations, have failed to deliver a sustainable government in Somalia.

Kenyan military officials say their plan is to squeeze the port of Kismayu, one of Somalia’s biggest towns and a major money-earner for the Shabab, from two sides in a pincer movement with troops massing to the west near Afmadow and to the south in Raas Kaambooni. Heavy rains, though, have literally bogged them down, and after an initial burst of activity, the Kenyan advance seems to have slowed.

Major Chirchir said the Kenyan Navy had also positioned ships along the coastline from the Kenyan border toward Kismayu.

“Any vessel that is there with a militia we will take it down,” he warned.

On Sunday, Kenyan officials said that a French naval ship had shelled the city of Koday, south of Kismayu, and that casualty figures were not yet available. The French military has also launched small, covert strikes in Somalia in the past, aimed at terrorism suspects and pirates.

Kenyan military spokesman Emmanuel Chirchir confirmed to the Kenyan newspaper The Daily Nation that the port city of Kismayu was under persistent air attacks, but denied those attacks came from the Keyan Air Force.

“It is confirmed that Kismayu has been under aerial attacks, but it is not our troops, it must be one of our allies.”

This is believable, the only fighter aircraft the Kenyan Air Force has are F-5s, and it is hard to imagine they would be successful in precision target runs against terrorist fortifications in Kismayu.

So who is the mystery airpower bombing terrorists in Somalia? The US has two carrier strike groups - the USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) and the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77), and an amphibious readiness group - the USS Bataan (LHD 5), in 5th Fleet region that includes the Somali port of Kismayu. Until it is determined who is doing the airstrikes (and I am skeptical it is us, I think our role is ISR/logistics), the US is the obvious nation to be accused of conducting those strikes.

But if we assume it isn't the US military bombing targets in Somalia, and we also assume it is not the Kenyan Air Force, it makes more sense to presume the strikes are either French military or contracted out. One possibility is that the French are launching strikes from a few bases in the region, which is the most plausible scenario. There are a handful of private security outfits these days that operate UAVs for hire in Africa, which is another reasonable, but unlikely possibility.

Either way, this assault has the potential to be 'end game' for Al Shabaab. It does appear the US is playing a limited, supporting role in the background of these Kenyan military operations (mostly ISR and C2 it appears, but logistics is possible), and I for one support the US helping Kenya clean up their Somali backyard. None of Somalia's other problems will ever see the resources needed to build solutions until Al Shabaab is dealt with, and the unfolding situation in southern Somalia appears to be the first legitimate opportunity to deal the death blow to the organization in many years.