Jan 10, 2012 By Bill Sweetman - defense technology
international
Will 2012 bring as many unexpected events as 2011? Changing orders in the Islamic world add more unpredictability, because nobody is sure where the new leadership will fall on the scales of
idealism and pragmatism or on the role of Islamic law in society. Certainly, nobody a year ago anticipated an all-air NATO campaign against Libya.
The single biggest flashpoint as 2012 opens is the unresolved conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran, over Tehran’s determination to join the nuclear club, coupled with the apocalyptic
threats of its leaders. The crash of a U.S. stealth drone in December—claimed unconvincingly as a shootdown—shows how important intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance has become, but
underlines the difficulties of managing relations with a closed society. And the more we learn about the Stuxnet virus, the more we realize that cyberwarfare is real and upon us.
Naval forces, meanwhile, find themselves in roles that seemed to be outgrown and roles that are new, or at least new to anyone born in the last 200 years. Chasing smugglers is one thing—but
smugglers in submarines? In 2011, too, the war on piracy continued, and the Royal Navy engaged land targets in Libya with gunfire.
On land, the main developments of 2012 will be the drawdown in Iraq and attempts to stabilize the wreck of Afghanistan, while keeping the fractious and factional state of Pakistan in some kind of
working order. Peace on earth? Not quite yet.
View World Conflict Map
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