23 September 2013 by Kim Helfrich, defenceWeb

There is a still a long way to go before any permanent naval vessel presence re-establishes itself in Durban.

SA Navy Chief Vice Admiral Johannes Mudimu earlier this year indicated the former home of what was the strikecraft flotilla would again be brought into service as a fully operational naval base. He said the Salisbury Island site would become a permanent home to the offshore patrol vessels (OPV) in the Navy fleet.

One of the biggest problems is suitable accommodation for naval personnel at the proposed base. “Proposed” because at present the Navy in Durban is accommodated at a naval station and this can only be changed to a full naval base once certain functions, including accommodation, are in place Commander Eugene Khumalo of the Navy Public Relations Department said.

Ministerial authority is the final hurdle to be cleared before the existing naval station can be upgrade to base status and this is dependent on factors such as vessel handling and maintenance capacity as well as accommodation.

“Work is currently underway on workshops and other facilities at Naval Station Durban to support more regular port calls to Durban by SAN vessels as a result of an increase in operations along the East Coast,” he said.

The increase is primarily as a result of the ongoing counter-piracy tasking, Operation Copper. This sees one SAN platform deployed to the Mozambique Channel as part of a joint Mozambican/South African/Tanzanian effort to stop piracy along the continental east coast. To date the Navy has deployed Valour Class frigates, the replenishment vessel SAS Drakensberg and one of the strikecraft refurbished to OPV status to the busy sea lane to deter piracy.

Apart from bringing back the workshops and associated ships’ maintenance facilities to full operation at Salisbury Island the Navy is liaising with other Department of Defence entities, primarily the Chief of Logistics and, to a lesser extent, the Department of Public Works, in efforts to secure suitable accommodation.

When the Navy departed Durban its housing facilities were mostly taken over the elements of the SA Army. With the landward arm of service still having a presence in the east coast harbour city accommodation for married naval personnel is acknowledged as being a problem area.

The situation is somewhat different as regards single accommodation with refurbishment work on existing single quarters currently underway.

Khumalo sums up the situation by saying: “There is ongoing work in Durban to ensure the current OPVs can be effectively supported while alongside.

“The intention is that when the new OPVs are acquired, the Durban facilities will also be able to fully support them. So it is a concurrent process that is underway.”

As to the number of naval personnel that will eventually call Durban home he cannot be specific – “it will be dependent on the type of platforms acquired and the support personnel, apart from ships’ crews, the new vessels will require”.

September 23, 2013 defense-update.com

The US Navy’s latest UAS, the Northrop Grumman Fire Scout MQ-8C unmanned helicopter began manufacturers’ ground testing at the Naval Base Ventura County Point Mugu, Calif., Sept. 20. Conducting initial engine runs of the aircraft allows engineers to collect data to ensure that all the aircraft’s systems are functioning and communicating properly prior to its first flight. This latest aircraft upgrade to the Fire Scout system provides the Navy with more than twice the endurance and three times the payload carrying capacity, enabling an unprecedented level of persistent surveillance, intelligence and reconnaissance capability. The MQ-8C aircraft is scheduled to be ready for deployment beginning in 2014.

23.09.2013 par Frédéric Lert (FOB)

FOB termine avec Antoine Bouvier, PDG de MBDA, son tour d’horizon des auditions menées par la commission de la Défense à l’assemblée nationale. MBDA, qui est né en 2001 du regroupement des principaux missiliers européens, a réalisé un chiffre d’affaires annuel moyen de 800 M€ avec la France pour les années 2008-2010. Un niveau d’activité élevé dû à des pics de livraisons sur les missiles Mica et Aster, et un chiffre qui fait aujourd’hui envie…

« Nous sommes aujourd’hui en discussion avec la DGA pour des réductions de format sur la plupart de nos programmes soulignait Antoine Bouvier devant la commission de la Défense nationale. (…) Notre estimation de ce que pourrait être le flux annuel moyen pendant la LPM est de 500 M€ ». De 800 à 500, la baisse est supérieure à 30%. Mais si l’on applique l’inflation, la réduction du budget que le client français consacre à MBDA et la filière missile serait plus proche de 40%. Sans compter qu’il s’agit de comparer des budgets « réalisés » à des budgets « estimés ». Or on sait bien qu’il y a loin de la coupe aux lèvres en matière de LPM et que la perte en ligne est parfois sévère entre ce qui est annoncé et ce qui est effectivement réalisé… Clairement, le fabricant de missiles MBDA souffre de la priorité donnée aux plateformes au détriment des munitions emportées…

Pour limiter la casse au niveau des activités de développement, le gouvernement a choisi de faire porter l’effort budgétaire sur les activités de fabrication et les contrats en cours. « Un choix que nous soutenons » note Antoine Bouvier. Il n’empêche : la potion s’annonce très amère pour le missilier qui va devoir réduire ses activités de développement de 20% et les productions de 40 à 50%. On peut à ce stade se demander ce qu’il restera à fabriquer dans les usines du groupe, d’autant que les réductions de commandes annoncées s’imputeront sur des grands programmes dont les livraisons ont déjà commencé pour certains. Avec, répétons-le, la possibilité (si l’on est optimiste) ou la probabilité (si l’on est pessimiste) que les promesses actuelles de la LPM ne soient pas respectées, ce qui ferait encore baisser le niveau des commandes. Globalement, MBDA estime à 500 équivalents temps plein au sein du groupe et de ses sous-traitants de la filière missile les pertes d’emploi directement liées à la LPM.

Face à cet horizon morose, Antoine Bouvier pouvait toutefois faire état de sa satisfaction sur deux points : le premier est le lancement du programme MMP (Missile Moyenne Portée) destiné à remplacer les Milan. « On revient de très très loin a-t-il martelé. Et « on », ce n’est pas seulement MBDA : c’est aussi l’armée de Terre et toute la communauté industrielle liée à ce programme ». Pour sauver le MMP, MBDA s’est engagé à prendre 75% des coûts de développement. « Une proposition exceptionnelle, parce qu’on ne pouvait pas se résoudre à ce que le missile terrestre devienne uniquement américain ou israélien ». MBDA attend désormais une notification du contrat pour la fin d’année, indispensable pour tenir une mise en service prévue pour 2017. Les discussions portent actuellement avec la DGA sur une tranche ferme de 1500 missiles et MBDA évoque toujours un objectif de 9000 ventes à l’export.

Autre raison d’espérer, le programme de missile ANL (Anti Navire Léger) dont MBDA attend désormais le lancement officiel à l’occasion d’un prochain sommet franco-britannique, fin 2013 ou début 2014. L’écueil pour un développement conjoint entre Paris et Londres tient moins aux caractéristiques techniques qu’aux divergences de calendrier entre les deux pays. Pour combler ce décalage, MBDA travaille d’ores et déjà avec Eurocopter sur des solutions d’intégration à minima du futur missile sur les hélicoptères Panther de la marine nationale.

Sep. 23, 2013 by Greg Waldron - FG

Singapore - Grob has delivered the first four G120TP aircraft to the Indonesian air force, with an additional six to come before the end of 2013.

These aircraft are part of an 18 unit, $72 million deal for the type, says the Indonesian air force. The deal was signed in September 2011.

In 2014, Grob will deliver the remaining eight aircraft.

Indonesia will use the turboprop-powered type for elementary and basic training. It will replace the air force’s fleet of FFA AS-202 and Beechcraft T-34s.

Jakarta recently received its first pair of Korea Aerospace Industries T-50i Golden Eagle advanced jet trainers. It is obtaining 16 T-50is, with all of the aircraft to be delivered by February 2014.

9/22/2013 Strategy Page

An RQ-4 Global Hawk taxies on the flightline as a U-2 makes its final approach Sept. 17, 2013, at Beale Air Force Base, Calif. The RQ-4 and U-2 are the Air ForceÂ’s primary high-altitude intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo/Airman 1st Class Bobby Cummings)

23 September 2013 airforce-technology.com

The US Air Force Air National Guard, with Georgia Tech Research Institute, has completed the assessment and demonstration of the single channel ground and airborne radio system situational awareness (SINCGARS SA) waveform capability on Beechcraft's AT-6 light attack aircraft.

As part of the demonstration, the dual ARC-210 Warrior Radios of the AT-6 were configured, allowing the aircraft to securely and directly communicate with three different joint terminal attack controllers (JTAC) at a time, who were positioned to perform several, realistic combat situations.

The technology is a software-controlled high-frequency radio and is expected to play a key role in military armed reconnaissance by providing digital communication and global positioning services (GPS) in both fixed and mobile configurations.

Encouraged by the successful demonstration of the SINCGARS SA Waveform, US military is now expected to further develop tactics in its close air support (CAS), combat search-and-rescue (CSAR) and combat search-and-rescue task force (CSARTF) missions going forward.

AT-6 became the first aircraft to use the new technology capability; it has reportedly transmitted and received tactical audio and dynamic position locations with fielded combat ground radios successfully during assessment.

Beechcraft Defense Company president Russ Bartlett said: "Beechcraft's AT-6 was selected as the first fixed-wing aircraft to perform this demonstration due to its advanced communications and data transfer capabilities, which enables it to perform complex close air support and combat search-and-rescue missions."

At the time of demonstration, the ground forces were carrying PRC-148, PRC-152 and PRC-117 radios, said Beechcraft.

Designed for light attack missions in the most demanding scenarios, AT-6 is equipped with Pratt and Whitney PT6A-68D engine, CMC Esterline's mission modified Cockpit 4000, Lockheed Martin's A-10C-based mission system and L-3 WESCAM's MX-15Di sensor suite, the company said.

September 23rd, 2013 By Northrop Grumman - defencetalk.com

Northrop Grumman Scalable Agile Beam Radar (SABR) will help extend the viability of the U.S. Air Force’s F-16 fighter aircraft beyond 2025 and help ensure the F-16 remains a vital component of the nation’s fighter force structure.

Skip Wagner, director of International Business Development and Strategy for Northrop Grumman’s ISR and Targeting Systems Division, provided details on the radar upgrades to reporters in a briefing today at the Air Force Association’s Air and Space Conference and Technology Exposition 2013.

Northrop Grumman was chosen by prime contractor Lockheed Martin as the radar provider for the F-16 Combat Avionics Programmed Extension Suite (CAPES), which is an avionics modernization program designed to keep the F-16 viable in future threat environments and improve system reliability and maintainability.

CAPES program objectives are to mitigate critical future capability gaps, provide advanced electronic protection, enhance situational awareness and survivability, and provide options to meet force structure requirements with modernized F-16s. SABR contributes substantially to CAPES program objectives.

“We are proud that SABR is the centerpiece of the F-16 CAPES program,” said Wagner. “The radar system adds robust electronic protection, including modes ported directly from the F-35′s AN/APG-81 radar to counter current and future threats. As a matter of fact, SABR has 95 percent re-use of fifth generation AESA modes adding to commonality and affordability.”

SABR includes Big Synthetic Aperture Radar (Big SAR) mapping, which allows for broader all-environment precision mapping. Auto Target Cueing and Auto Target Recognition improves situational awareness and combat identification. Air-to-air and air-to-surface detection, tracking, and weapons employment ranges have all been increased. Mode interleaving also improves situational awareness and survivability.

“With the capabilities that SABR brings, reliability and availability will be three to five times greater than with the mechanically scanned F-16 radars fielded just two decades ago,” added Wagner. “That adds up to higher readiness rates and lower support costs. SABR brings great value.”

SABR’s design incorporates proven hardware and advanced operating modes from Northrop Grumman’s F-35 and F-22 AESAs. The high degree of commonality among the various AESA radars, coupled with shared manufacturing processes and infrastructure, enables efficiencies and affordability across all of Northrop Grumman’s AESA programs.

As part of the contractual agreement with Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman will also be upgrading the radars for the Taiwan Air Force’s F-16 fleet. Radar development and production activities for the U.S. and Taiwan F-16 upgrade programs will run in parallel and demonstrate the benefits of international cooperation, interoperability and equipment commonality for U.S and allied forces.

Other AESA radars developed by the company are currently flying on the F-16 Block 60, F-22 and F-35 Lightning II.

23.09.2013 par P. CHAPLEAU Lignes de Défense

La cérémonie officielle d'accueil du nouvel avion de transport militaire A400M Atlas au sein de l'armée de l'air française aura lieu le lundi 30 septembre. L'avion arrivera de Séville et se posera à Orléans à 14h (ou plus tard, l'A400 nous ayant habitué à des retards).

Jean-Yves Le Drian, qui présidera la cérémonie militaire, fera le vol Séville-Orléans à bord de l'appareil.

Comme le dit si bien le communiqué de la DICOD,

23 September 2013 Grant Turnbull - airforce-technology.com

Nato is on the brink of fielding an integrated air command and control system in four member countries. The system will soon be rolled out to at least another ten nations, but the programme's complexity means significant challenges have to be overcome.

ACCS features common core software, open architecture and system-wide human-machine interface

The goal of having an integrated air command and control (AirC2) capability among the Nato alliance has long been a desire for military commanders.

The way Air C2 has been accomplished in the last 60 years - through a variety of Nato and national systems - is now seen as inadequate in meeting future requirements. Militaries want a single, integrated air defence system, which will provide the capability to plan, task and execute tactical air operations in, and outside, the Nato area.

Since the end of the Cold War, Nato has conducted several campaigns predominantly using air assets from multiple member states. These have varied in intensity on the spectrum of conflict, from humanitarian missions to armed interventions, seen most recently in the 2011 Libya campaign and the on-going operations in Afghanistan.

To support this broad-spectrum of operations, Nato has looked to equipment that will enhance Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) capabilities.

Nato is meeting this challenge with the Air Command and Control System (ACCS) programme. The history of ACCS dates back to the early 1990s, when Nato began a number of programmes aimed at improving the interoperability of alliance members and in-turn improving C4ISR capabilities.

This 'smart defence' approach also focused on the importance of affordability and cost-effectiveness.

Nato's 1998 Kosovo air campaign highlighted shortfalls in the alliance's ability to coordinate combined air attack and support, which further drove development of a new ACCS capability.

Engineering and developing ACCS

The ACCS system is being built by ThalesRaytheonSystems (TRS), a consortium of Thales and Raytheon. It was formed in 2001 from Air Command System International (ACSI), the legal entity of the first Thales and Raytheon consortium, which won the ACCS contract in 1999. Since then, TRS has been performing systems development and engineering and - in the later stages - a comprehensive integration, validation and verification phase.

"ACCS will be a highly interoperable, highly integrated air command and control system," explains vice president of Nato C4I business line within TRS, Stephen Dumont. "When Nato carries out its important air missions it can be done in a highly coordinated fashion. It's a very important thing for Nato going forward."

"It is probably one of the biggest and most important projects within Nato because of the relevance to Nato's mission. One only needs to turn on the news today and look at what's going on around the world, a multinational response is always considered. In order for that to be effective, you need a system like ACCS to be in place," Dumont adds.

ACCS features common core software, open architecture and a system-wide human-machine interface. In addition to providing these necessary capabilities to support critical missions, Dumont says the system will save money by using a common support approach and more opportunity for sharing resources, including Nato personnel as well as spares and maintenance costs. It is hoped that a ACCS operator in, for instance, Turkey would be able to operate the same system in France or any other Nato country - and vice versa.

Role and functions

The main customer for ACCS is the Nato Communication and Information Agency (NCIA), which was formed from three other agencies in July 2012.

"The system is not introducing something new in terms of capacity of detection, because all that information will come from already existing systems," says NCIA ACCS programme director Enzo Montalti. "What is new is the ability to manage a large number of capabilities remotely and provide the operator on a single workstation with an entire world of information and possibility."

"In the air domain - where time is a very important factor - the capability to elaborate in a few seconds essential information and enable the operator to make a decision is essential," Montalti adds.

ACCS is split into two main entities which are closely integrated: the real-time mission execution component known as ARS (air control centres, RAP production centres and sensor fusion posts) and CAOCs, (Combined Air Operations Centre) which deal with non-real-time critical planning and tasking of Nato air assets, will execute missions. Both ARS and COACs share a common database which means seemless transitions from real-time to non-real-time planning.

To support Nato's critical task of out-of-area missions there will also be deployable COACs and ARSs which are transportable and provide operational planning and tasking capability. Deployable ARS gives Nato operators the functionality for sensor management, surveillance data links, identification and aircraft and SAM control.

In April 2013, TRS reached a significant milestone when it validated ACCS during eight weeks of extensive testing at the NCIA's System Test and Verification Facility (STVF) in Glons, Belgium. As of September 2013, TRS are preparing to transition ACCS from the test programme into a series of Initial Operational Test and Evaluations (IOT&Es) so the end-users can start to work with the system and prepare for operations.

Validating, integrating and expanding ACCS

France, Germany, Belgium and Italy are validation nations where TRS is in the process of testing the ACCS system and the unique interfaces in each country.

The ACCS systems in Belgium and Germany have already been successfully tested and dry-run tests are being carried out in France and Italy.

This phase of testing is scheduled to be completed by the end of the year. The last phase of testing will link together all four sites with the STVF and is likely to be complete early next year.

The next phase will be to roll out ACCS entities across Nato and 'replicate' the system, but it remains to be seen how many countries will eventually introduce ACCS, especially as political and economic factors influence its integration.

It is estimated that at least another ten Nato countries will begin to integrate ACCS into their air command and control systems in the future.

But this still leaves another 14 members who have yet to decide whether to integrate ACCS and the UK, in particular, is one of those.

"All the European countries will be covered by ACCS but that doesn't mean that every single country will have a specific installation, but the Nato territory can enjoy the benefits of the system," says Montalti.

September 23, 2013: Strategy Page

In Nairobi, Kenya the fighting with Somali al Shabaab gunmen in a mall continues. The government says that most hostages have been freed and that troops are closing in on the remaining terrorist gunmen. An Internet announcement said the terrorists in the mall were holding hostages, which they would kill if security forces continued attacking them. Last night the government said the mall was being cleared and would soon be safe. The hostages have been used as human shields, complicating army and police efforts to eliminate the terrorists inside the mall. Al Shabaab describes the mall attack, which has left nearly a hundred dead and 200 wounded, as retaliation for Kenyan peacekeepers coming into Somalia to fight the Islamic terror group. The Kenyan government repeated promises that attacks like this will not lead to a withdrawal of Kenyan troops from southern Somali. What’s going on between Somalia and Kenya goes back a long time. The Somalis have been raiding what is now Kenya for centuries, and for once the Kenyans have the upper hand. They are not dissuaded by terror attacks. Al Shabaab believes that an attack of this magnitude would change that. So far the Kenyan reaction appears more anger than fear and that bodes ill for Somalis (citizens and refugees) living in Kenya.

Al Shabaab sponsored terror attacks in Kenya over the last few years has created a backlash against the Somali population there. There is growing tension between Kenyan Christians and Somalis. About ten percent (4 million) of Kenyans, mostly along the coast, are Moslems and most of these are ethnic Somalis. There has always been some Islamic radical activity among Kenyan Moslems, but the police have been particularly attentive to it after Kenyan Moslems were found to be involved in terrorist operations in the 1990s.

What the police have not done, however, is make much of a dent in the criminal infrastructure that supports smuggling, money laundering, a black market for guns, IDs and drugs and much else. The cops are often bought off, and the criminal gangs (especially the many Arab and Somali ones) provide support for terrorist operations in Somalia and Kenya. For example, a lot of the pirate ransom money ended up in Kenya, either for purchases of goods shipped to Somalia, or to be laundered and invested. Wealthy Somalis often find it prudent to go into exile, and Kenya is a popular place to retire to.

Then there are the overseas Somalis. Most of these are in Britain (300,000) and the United States (150,000). There are also half a million Somali refugees in northern Kenya and several hundred thousand more in places like Ethiopia and Yemen. Somali Islamic radicals often send their families into exile, to protect them, and some Islamic radicals have themselves gone into exile. There, Somali men, usually young (teenager to early 20s), are recruited and sent back to Somali for more indoctrination and training. Some are killed there, and some return to the U.S. and Britain to help with recruiting and, it is feared, to carry out terrorist attacks. This Western source of recruits has been largely shut down but Somalis outside Somalia continue to be a source of radicalized recruits for al Shabaab and cash for terrorist organizations. 

The Somali Islamic radicals have long been recruiting from among Kenya's Moslem population. This recruiting has slowed in the last year, because of the many defeats al Shabaab has suffered recently in Somalia. But many radicalized young Somalis are still living among the refugees and Moslem populations of Kenya. Police attempts to find and arrest Islamic radicals are often clumsy and result in innocents being rounded up or killed. This just creates more anger in the Moslem neighborhoods. The mall murders are expected to increase the police pressure on Kenyan Somalis. Many al Shabaab believe that this might trigger a Moslem uprising in Kenya and lead to a combined Somali-Kenyan Islamic state. This is pure fantasy but it’s the sort of thing Islamic terrorism thrives on. The mall attack and continued terror attacks in Somalia appear to be al Shabaab’s way of remaining in the news. A group like al Shabaab survives only as long as it can attract new recruits and cash donations. Western governments are trying to cut off the flow of cash to al Shabaab, and that is having some impact. But the fanatical puritanism and righteousness of Islamic terror groups still appeals to some young Moslem men, who see little future for themselves. Most Moslem societies have major problems with providing education and curbing corruption. This combination discourages foreign investment and economic growth. The Islamic radical solution is a mirage, but to the young, unemployed, uneducated and violence prone it resonates.  

It is believed that al Shabaab attacked this particular mall because it is popular with foreigners and wealthy Kenyans. Many Moslems work or shop there and some are believed to have died despite al Shabaab efforts to spare Moslems. Al Shabaab also made much of the fact that some of the mall owners are Israeli and Israel has been helping Kenya with intelligence and expert advice that has been useful in the fight against Islamic terrorists.

In Mogadishu two years of increasing security has attracted more foreigners (diplomats, aid agencies and entrepreneurs) and that has sent real estate values increasing by a factor of ten or more. This has forced out many long-term renters and led to corrupt officials assisting in the theft of some properties. This is usually done using false ownership documents obtained by bribing a government official and then bribing police to assist in the eviction. Court officials are then bribed to make the theft stick. This is causing a long of anger in the city. In addition the government is forcing over a hundred thousand refugees from areas outside the city.

September 21, 2013: In Nairobi, Kenya some 15 al Shabaab gunmen stormed into an upscale mall and began killing people. Those who could prove they were Moslem were spared but all others were killed. Automatic weapons and grenades were used and by the end of the day 59 were confirmed dead and over 200 wounded. Many of the casualties were women and children. Soldiers and police responded quickly and drove the attackers into a single location where the gunmen kept shooting and said they had hostages. Israeli counter-terrorism experts who were in Kenya quickly went to the mall to assist the security forces. Israel offered additional help.

Al Shabaab had its twitter account shut down again for violating Twitter terms of service by announcing the Nairobi attack and taking credit for it. Al Shabaab had that account shut down on September 6th for more Terms of Service violations but the terrorist group started a new account on September 10th. Last February al Shabaab began using a new Twitter account and criticized Twitter for shutting down al Shabaab’s original (since 2011) account on January 20 because the Islamic terrorists had used Twitter to make specific threats against several people on January 16th. This is not allowed by the Twitter terms of service. The al Shabaab account had over 20,000 followers.

September 16, 2013: Some 30 kilometers north of Mogadishu peacekeepers and Somali troops forced al Shabaab out of Mahadeey. The town is one of dozens of small places still held by al Shabaab gunmen. Al Shabaab rarely fights to hold onto these places anymore and flees at the approach of troops. The al Shabaab men will find some other place to set up shop. If cornered, groups like this will often fight to the death.

Uganda has ordered 24 of its peacekeepers to return home tomorrow and face charges of corruption. Those recalled include some officers, one them was the general commanding the Ugandan peacekeepers, whose next job was to be the military attaché at the Ugandan embassy in Kenya.  The soldiers were caught stealing supplies meant for Ugandan peacekeepers and selling the food and fuel on the black market. Some junior officers reported suspicions that some of their superiors in Somalia were involved. The Ugandan troops had been complaining of shortages and the government quietly conducted an investigation.

September 14, 2013: Al Shabaab fired on a peacekeeper base outside Marka (70 kilometers south of Mogadishu) and apparently set off a bomb inside the town. Although AU peacekeepers and Somali troops drove al Shabaab gunmen out of the port town of Marka a year ago, there are still armed al Shabaab operating in the area. This town has long served as a base for al Shabaab terrorists carrying out attacks in Mogadishu.  

September 13, 2013: In Kismayo, some al Shabaab gunmen attacked a military base. No casualties were reported but there were believed to be dead and wounded on both sides.

September 12, 2013: In Kismayo a car bomb exploded near the convoy of Ahmed Mohamed Islam (the senior government official in the southern region now called Jubbaland). Several civilians were killed but the intended target was unharmed. It’s not known if the attack was carried out by al Shabaab or local political rivals of Ahmed Mohamed Islam.

In the south (Al Baate) an American (Omar Shafik Hammami) member of al Shabaab was killed in a shootout with other al Shabaab members. Hammami has been with al Shabaab since 2006 and handled Internet propaganda for the terrorist group. Last year he was condemned to death by al Shabaab leaders who objected to Hammami accusing them of corruption. Six months ago the U.S. announced a $5 million reward for help in capturing Hammami, who has been hiding out in Somalia, apparently unable to get out of the country. Islamic terrorists with a large price on their heads and condemned to death by their fellow terrorists have limited options when it comes to finding sanctuary. There were many other Islamic terrorists, including some al Shabaab members, who supported Hammami. Apparently two of these allies died with Hammami. Some terrorist groups criticized al Shabaab for killing Hammami rather than clearing up the corruption charges.

September 11, 2013: Near the Ethiopian border (Hiran, central Somalia) al Shabaab executed two of its own men, one for spying and the other for armed robbery.

September 9, 2013: In Mogadishu al Shabaab fired mortars at a residential areas and an army base. There were no casualties.

September 8, 2013: In Mogadishu al Shabaab used a roadside bomb to attack a military convoy, but only managed to damage one vehicle.

September 7, 2013: In Mogadishu al Shabaab set off two bombs in a parking lot, killing 18 people.

September 3, 2013: Outside Mogadishu al Shabaab used a roadside bomb to attack a convoy carrying the president. The target was unharmed.

MOSCOU, 23 septembre - RIA Novosti

Sotchi accueille aujourd’hui le sommet de l'Organisation du traité de sécurité collective (OTSC), bloc militaro-politique de l'espace postsoviétique supervisé par Moscou, écrit lundi 23 septembre le quotidien Kommersant.

La Russie espère rallier les membres de l'organisation face aux menaces croissantes venant du sud, avant tout d'Afghanistan.

Les présidents des pays membres de l'OTSC se réunissent en général en décembre mais cette fois, ils ont jugé devoir le faire plus tôt. Selon une source de la délégation russe, tout un ensemble de questions ne peut pas attendre comme la situation en Afghanistan, d'où se retirera la majeure partie du contingent de l'Otan en 2014. Bien que l'Alliance évoque l'avenir en Afghanistan avec optimisme et affirme que les forces de sécurité nationales arriveront à assurer l'ordre, la Russie et ses alliés se préparent au pire scénario.

Au cours des entretiens prévus lors du sommet le président russe Vladimir Poutine, le ministre russe des Affaires étrangères Sergueï Lavrov et le ministre russe de la Défense Sergueï Choïgou discuteront avec leurs homologues biélorusses, kazakhs, arméniens, kirghizes et tadjiks du développement de la Force collective d'intervention rapide de l'OTSC et de son potentiel en termes de maintien de la paix. Une attention particulière sera accordée au renforcement de la frontière entre l’Afghanistan et le Tadjikistan.

La Russie a promis d'allouer 200 millions de dollars au réarmement de l'armée tadjike : actuellement, Moscou et Douchanbé se mettent d'accord sur la nomenclature du matériel dont le Tadjikistan aura besoin - il s’agira avant tout d'armes d'infanterie. Par ailleurs, les experts pensent que l'affaire pourrait ne pas se limiter aux livraisons d'armes et les garde-frontières russes pourraient revenir à la frontière tadjiko-afghane. Ils avaient protégé cette région de 1 400 km jusqu'en 2005, après quoi Douchanbé avait entièrement pris en charge cette mission.

Les forces tadjikes ont en réalité des difficultés à remplir leur mission, comme en témoigne la hausse significative du trafic de drogues afghanes dont la majeure partie est destinée à la Russie. Si après le retrait du contingent étranger la situation en Afghanistan s'aggravait et qu’une guerre civile éclatait, les autorités tadjikes n'arriveraient pas à gérer l'afflux de réfugiés et la pression des groupes criminels armés sans aide extérieur en selon les experts russes. L'ambassadeur russe à Kaboul, Andreï Avetissian, a récemment déclaré qu'en raison de la détérioration prévue de la situation en Afghanistan, Moscou étudiait la possibilité de projeter ses garde-frontières sur la frontière tadjiko-afghane. Il a toutefois souligné que la Russie n'entreprendrait aucune action sans en avertir préalablement les autorités tadjikes.

Pour l'instant, Douchanbé ne dit rien de concret à ce sujet. L'élection présidentielle se tiendra au Tadjikistan en novembre et bien que le président sortant Emomali Rakhmon n'ait pas de concurrents sérieux, il n'annoncera certainement pas une mesure qui pourrait être interprétée par ses opposants comme une atteinte à la souveraineté du pays.

La Syrie sera également un thème clé du sommet. Sergueï Lavrov, ministre russe des Affaires étrangères, a déclaré hier à la chaîne Perviy Kanal que la Russie était prête à mettre à disposition ses militaires pour contribuer à la sécurité des régions où travailleront les experts de l'Organisation pour l'interdiction des armes chimiques (OIAC). Les dirigeants des pays membres de l'OTSC devraient adopter aujourd'hui une déclaration commune en soutien de l'initiative de Moscou pour l'établissement du contrôle international sur les arsenaux chimiques syriens.

Aujourd'hui également le Kirghizstan passera le relais de la présidence à l'OTSC à la Russie. Selon une source du secrétariat de l'organisation, Moscou cherchera à renforcer la coopération politique et militaro-stratégique au sein du bloc et proclamera comme priorité la lutte contre le trafic des stupéfiants, ce qui sera certainement l'une des initiatives clés de la présidence de la Russie au G8 l'an prochain. Selon la source, Moscou espère rallier les membres de l'organisation face aux risques croissants émanant du sud car ces menaces pourraient prochainement devenir la plus importante épreuve pour le bloc.

September 23rd, 2013 By RAND  - defencetalk.com

Like the collapse of East Germany, the collapse of North Korea could occur suddenly and with little warning. But a North Korean collapse could be far more dangerous and disastrous than the actual collapse of East Germany, especially given the inadequate preparations for it, according to a new RAND Corporation report.

The current North Korean government, led by Kim Jong Un, has showed signs of instability for some time and most experts agree that a collapse is likely. It is more a matter of “when” than “if” it will occur, says Bruce Bennett, the study’s author and a senior defense analyst at RAND, a nonprofit research organization.

The study describes many of the possible consequences of a North Korean government collapse, including civil war in the North, a humanitarian crisis, the potential use and proliferation of the nation’s chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, and even war with China.

Failure to establish stability in North Korea could disrupt the political and economic conditions in Northeast Asia and leave a serious power vacuum for a decade or longer, Bennett said.

The study examines ways of controlling and mitigating the consequences of a North Korean government collapse, recognizing that the Republic of Korea and the United States almost certainly will need to intervene in the North, even if only to deliver humanitarian aid. They will likely seek Korean unification as the ultimate outcome.

Preparation is required because the situation in North Korean could deteriorate rapidly. Food and medicine already are in short supply, and a collapse would lead to hoarding that would leave many people starving. A simultaneous deterioration in internal security could force people to leave their homes, making it even more difficult to deliver humanitarian aid.

The Republic of Korea and the United States must be prepared to rapidly deliver food supplies throughout all of North Korea, Bennett said. Prompt delivery requires preparing stockpiles of food and practicing delivery methods.

The nations also must also be prepared to quickly achieve a degree of stability and security in the North. This requires co-opting North Korea military and security service personnel. A failure to do so would lead to military battles with North Korean forces and a defection of some of those forces to insurgency or criminal activities, which could disrupt local security for years and perhaps even frustrate unification.

The North Korean personnel must be convinced that they will be treated well and can achieve better lives after unification. Already, information is leaking into North Korea that challenges the regime’s propaganda claiming that people in the Republic of Korea lead lives that are even worse than people in the North.

North Korean troops also pose a serious threat in the potential use of weapons of mass destruction. These weapons appear to be dispersed among a large number of facilities, at least some of which have not been identified, making it difficult to quickly eliminate the threat. Prompt, prepared action is more likely to secure much of the weapons of mass destruction, especially with Chinese help.

Potential Chinese intervention also must be addressed, ideally leading to cooperation with forces from the Republic of Korea and the United States. A North Korea collapse would heighten Chinese fears of both a massive influx of North Korean refugees and U.S. intervention into an area directly adjoining China’s border.

China recognizes that the United States will want to promptly reach the North Korean weapons of mass destruction sites north of Pyongyang to prevent their use or proliferation. This U.S. interest could force China to seek to secure these facilities before the United States does.

China also may try to create a buffer zone inside North Korea to contain the refugees and prevent them from reaching China, where there are large pockets of ethnic Koreans. North Korean ports on the East Sea and North Korea’s mineral wealth are other economic targets China will want to secure. The Republic of Korea also has concerns that if China intervenes in North Korea, it might not be reversible, and China may end up annexing some significant portion of the North.

China has been reluctant to discuss the possibility of a North Korean collapse, for fear of appearing disloyal to its ally and adding to the stability problems in North Korea. But some Chinese attitudes are changing, opening new opportunities for dialogue, according to the RAND report.

A final concern is the military capabilities of the Republic of Korea. The Republic of Korea’s army will be reduced from its current size of 22 active-duty divisions to approximately 12 by 2022 because of very low birthrates. Action must be taken to curb these reductions and compensate for the loss through measures such as building the capabilities of the reserve forces.

Full Report in PDF format: U.S., Republic of Korea and Allies Should Prepare for Eventual Collapse of North Korean Government (51)

Research for the report was sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation and was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division. The National Security Research Division conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security and intelligence communities and foundations and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis.

September 23rd, 2013 Rosoboronexport

India is going to buy more than fifty short range air defense systems

India has announce a tender to buy more than fifty short range air defense systems. Rosoboronexport probably will submit two Russian systems – Tor-M2E manufactured by PVO Almaz-Antei and the surface-to-air missile system Pantsir-S1.

India already has air defense systems that was supplied by the Soviet Union and later on by Russia. Indian army employs the earlier counterpart of Pantsir which is called Tunguska. The army also has medium range air defense systems S-75 and short range air defense systems S-125, Kvadrat air defense systems which serves as a basis for India’s own improved surface-to-air missile system called Akash.

“India knows how to use Soviet and Russian air defense systems and they will quickly get the hang of the new systems. Of course there was a period when Israeli manufacturers cooperated with Indian military forces and nowadays supply them with short and medium range air defense systems both for Indian navy and land forces. On the other hand Russia offers the cutting edge systems which have already been tested both in Russian army and in other armies as well. Pantsir combines in itself capabilities of a quick-firing long-range missile”, said Said Aminov, editor in chief of Vestnik PVO web-site.

The range of action of Pantsir is 20 km. This characteristic makes Pantsir a one-off system. Nowadays we have made four contracts with Middle East and North African countries to supply this surface-to-air missile system.

“Tor-M2E is also quite effective system. It was exported extensively. Now we offer a container variant. The pilot model with the Indian manufactured undercarriage of this system was presented at MAKS show. Tor can protect against all air weapons including high-precision weapons”, said Said Aminov.

According to Vyacheslav Davydenko, Rosoboronexport’s spokesman not only India but also other countries choose Russian air defense systems. Such systems as Tor-M2E and Pantsir are new and in the immediate future there will be no question as to their improvement or replacement.

Experts say that if there are orders for the supply of more than 52 systems, then it will be possible to consider the licensed production of certain kinds of Russian weapons in India. As a matter of fact the experience of supplying T-90 tanks and multipurpose Su-30 MKI jets show that this can be possible.